Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
233 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING ACROSS
THE REGION BUT ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH FEWER
SUPERCELLS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE BUT STILL CANT RULE OUT
A TORNADO AS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO WARM AND HUMID
ENVIRONMENT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME AND WILL PUSH THE RAIN OUT OF OUR REGION
BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF ALL THE
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NATURE COAST.

SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THEN RECOVERING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF LOWER 80S NORTH TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... LATEST MODELS
HAVE NOW COME IN LINE AND SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. MOVES EASTWARD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SETUP BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS BRINGING WARM HUMID AIR BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA SETTING
US UP FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME DRIER AND SLIGHT COOLER AIR MOVING BACK IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO TPA...PIE AND SRQ. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF AIRPORTS 22 TO 23Z THEN IMPACT FMY AND RSW THROUGH 23 TO
24Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NOW. WINDS TO THE
SOUTH ARE ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS BUT MAY INCREASE AS THE LINE PASSES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HUMIDITIES BELOW 35
PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  79  63  80 /  10   0   5   5
FMY  65  83  62  85 /  40   0   5   5
GIF  60  81  60  82 /  20   0   5   5
SRQ  63  80  62  80 /  20   0   5   5
BKV  54  79  55  80 /  10   0   5   5
SPG  66  79  66  79 /  10   0   5   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM...CLOSE
AVIATION...LAMARRE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
552 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-312200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
552 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
OTHERWISE STORMS WILL CONTAIN DEADLY LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. A RIP CURRENT IS A
10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG
SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE
SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE
RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE
FORCE WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER.
FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

CARLISLE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
201 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

FLZ051-055-060-311845-
MANATEE-SARASOTA-HILLSBOROUGH-
201 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH...
NORTHWESTERN SARASOTA AND MANATEE COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR PARRISH...OR 10 MILES EAST OF PALMETTO...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH...WILL AFFECT PARRISH...ELLENTON...MYAKKA HEAD AND DUETTE...
UNTIL 245 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 217 AND 229.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2746 8268 2748 8265 2763 8255 2765 8205
      2744 8208 2738 8257 2742 8260 2744 8264
      2742 8264 2738 8261 2737 8264 2744 8269
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 262DEG 33KT 2753 8240

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
229 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

FLZ055-060-311915-
MANATEE-SARASOTA-
229 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
SARASOTA AND MANATEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 227 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR SARASOTA BRADENTON AIRPORT...OR
NEAR SARASOTA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH WILL AFFECT WHITFIELD...WEST
SAMOSET...SIESTA KEY AND SARASOTA BRADENTON AIRPORT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2746 8265 2764 8213 2727 8208 2713 8249
      2717 8250 2725 8255 2738 8261 2734 8256
      2741 8258 2743 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 272DEG 12KT 2739 8254

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
237 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND SARASOTA BRADENTON AIRP 27.40N 82.55W
03/31/2011  M41 MPH          MANATEE            FL   ASOS

            THE ASOS AT THE SARASOTA BRADENTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
            MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 36 KNOTS.

&&

COLSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
250 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 5 NNW ANNA MARIA ISLAND 27.60N 82.76W
03/31/2011  M48 MPH          HILLSBOROUGH       FL   MESONET

            PORTS STATION AT EGMONT KEY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 42
            KNOTS.

&&

TFLEMING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
313 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

FLZ043-048-312000-
SUMTER-HERNANDO-
313 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HERNANDO AND CENTRAL SUMTER
COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEEKI WACHEE ACRES...OR 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HUDSON...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH...WILL AFFECT WEEKI
WACHEE...SPRING HILL...BROOKSVILLE AND RIDGE MANOR...UNTIL 400 PM
EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2879 8195 2854 8194 2844 8241 2844 8265
      2851 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 250DEG 55KT 2842 8273

JOHNSON