Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
958 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

.UPDATE...BUSY MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH INTENSE
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SPAWNING MULTIPLE TORNADOES. THE GRIDS WILL
ONLY BE UPDATED FOR MAJOR CHANGES SUCH AS ANY CHANGES TO OUR
WATCHES.

EXPECT THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THE ACTIVITY OUT TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINING NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION NOTED IN RADAR
DATA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT PIE-TPA-SRQ
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SRQ AND FMY-RSW WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MID-LATER AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS BUT WILL SOON MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/MARINE...JILLSON
AVIATION...LAMARRE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
552 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-312200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
552 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
OTHERWISE STORMS WILL CONTAIN DEADLY LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. A RIP CURRENT IS A
10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG
SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE
SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE
RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE
FORCE WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER.
FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

CARLISLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1149 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW CLEARWATER        27.90N 82.79W
03/31/2011                   PINELLAS           FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROOF AND STRUCTURE DAMAGE NEAR LARGO MALL. ALSO REPORT OF
            300 FOOT TOWER COLLAPSE IN AREA.

&&

ASM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1151 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1141 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE RUSKIN            27.70N 82.40W
03/31/2011  E44 MPH          HILLSBOROUGH       FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            AT NWS OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

&&

NOAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1157 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     TORNADO          5 W BRANDON             27.92N 82.37W
03/31/2011                   HILLSBOROUGH       FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            UNCONFIRMED TORNADO. REPORTS OF TWO OVERTURNED VEHICLES.

1140 AM     TORNADO          5 W BRANDON             27.92N 82.37W
03/31/2011                   HILLSBOROUGH       FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            UNCONFIRMED TORNADO. REPORTS OF TWO OVERTURNED VEHCILES.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

ASM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1159 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     HAIL             3 W PLANT CITY          28.01N 82.18W
03/31/2011  M0.75 INCH       HILLSBOROUGH       FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ASM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1206 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 PM     TORNADO          MULBERRY                27.90N 81.97W
03/31/2011                   POLK               FL   AMATEUR RADIO

            TORNADO SPOTTED ON GROUND IN MULBERRY.

&&

NOAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1210 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

FLZ050-051-311700-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-
1210 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
HILLSBOROUGH AND SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

AT 1206 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR SAINT PETERSBURG...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH WILL AFFECT SAINT PETERSBURG BEACH...SAINT PETERSBURG...
LEALMAN AND KENNETH CITY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 275 BETWEEN EXITS 6 AND 26.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2783 8260 2779 8260 2778 8262 2773 8261
      2768 8266 2763 8266 2762 8274 2765 8275
      2767 8273 2768 8275 2771 8275 2777 8278
      2780 8282 2785 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 1611Z 274DEG 35KT 2774 8261

JOHNSON