Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
958 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

.UPDATE...BUSY MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH INTENSE
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SPAWNING MULTIPLE TORNADOES. THE GRIDS WILL
ONLY BE UPDATED FOR MAJOR CHANGES SUCH AS ANY CHANGES TO OUR
WATCHES.

EXPECT THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THE ACTIVITY OUT TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINING NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION NOTED IN RADAR
DATA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT PIE-TPA-SRQ
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SRQ AND FMY-RSW WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MID-LATER AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS BUT WILL SOON MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/MARINE...JILLSON
AVIATION...LAMARRE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
552 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-312200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
552 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
OTHERWISE STORMS WILL CONTAIN DEADLY LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. A RIP CURRENT IS A
10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG
SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE
SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE
RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE
FORCE WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER.
FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

CARLISLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
916 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     TORNADO          3 ENE LUTZ              28.16N 82.42W
03/31/2011                   HILLSBOROUGH       FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TORNADO AND FUNNEL THAT MOVED FROM
            ODESSA TO NEAR LUTZ TO NEAR INTERSTATE 75 JUST SOUTH OF
            THE PASCO COUNTY LINE. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

NOAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
927 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 AM     TORNADO          5 N KATHLEEN            28.19N 82.03W
03/31/2011                   POLK               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TORNADO NORTH OF KATHLEEN.

&&

NOAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
932 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     9 N GIBSONIA            28.24N 81.99W
03/31/2011                   POLK               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            VISUAL ON FUNNEL. NOT ON GROUND AT TIME.

&&

NOAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
936 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

FLZ042-043-048-049-311415-
SUMTER-HERNANDO-CITRUS-PASCO-
936 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
PASCO...SOUTHERN CITRUS...HERNANDO AND CENTRAL SUMTER COUNTIES FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 1015 AM
EDT...

AT 932 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR WEEKI WACHEE...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF
SPRING HILL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH WILL AFFECT WEEKI WACHEE...SPRING
HILL...HERNANDO BEACH AND CHASSAHOWITZKA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 301 AND 321.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 2844 8268 2846 8269 2848 8267 2852 8268
      2859 8265 2866 8268 2870 8265 2871 8268
      2874 8268 2875 8265 2876 8268 2879 8267
      2884 8206 2847 8196 2839 8271 2842 8271
TIME...MOT...LOC 1337Z 252DEG 31KT 2857 8256

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
939 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

FLZ039-311430-
LEVY-
939 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LEVY COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 1030 AM
EDT...

AT 937 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF CEDAR KEY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH WILL AFFECT CEDAR KEY...OTTER CREEK AND
CHIEFLAND.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 2936 8307 2945 8301 2959 8278 2924 8243
      2913 8281 2916 8282 2918 8298 2915 8300
      2916 8303 2914 8302 2909 8307 2914 8305
      2913 8310 2918 8306 2922 8309 2924 8307
      2930 8316
TIME...MOT...LOC 1339Z 247DEG 50KT 2920 8323

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1011 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BROOKSVILLE             28.55N 82.39W
03/31/2011                   HERNANDO           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE AND POWER LINES DOWN IN
            AND AROUND THE BROOKSVILLE AREA. SOME REPORTS TO 911 MAY
            BE FROM YESTERDAYS SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

NOAH