Alert archive / Florida / Tornado Watches in 2011

Tornado Watch 81

March 31, 201121 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 31, 2011, 12:46 PM EDT for 21 counties in Florida. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 31, 2011, 12:46 PM EDT (16:46 UTC)
Expired
Mar 31, 2011, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
70 kt
All 21 counties

Brevard County, FL, Charlotte County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Glades County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Lee County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Martin County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Palm Beach County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Polk County, FL, Saint Lucie County, FL, Sarasota County, FL, Seminole County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
40%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

5 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 31, 1:05 PM EDTTornado WarningMLBBrevard, Osceola23 min
Mar 31, 1:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTBWHillsborough, Manatee31 min
Mar 31, 4:39 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTBWHardee, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota36 min
Mar 31, 4:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTBWManatee, Sarasota24 min
Mar 31, 6:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTBWHillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas29 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 99 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2011-03-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 728 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2011-03-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 543 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
728 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-58 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
787 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
543 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
606 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
8.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

908 
WWUS20 KWNS 311647
SEL1
SPC WW 311647
FLZ000-CWZ000-010000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 81
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
       COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST OF FORT MEYERS
FLORIDA TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF AVON PARK FLORIDA.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 80. WATCH NUMBER 80 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1245
PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...AN ONGOING QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX OF STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOS...WILL CONTINUE
TO QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT OTHERWISE
GRADUALLY REFOCUSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
ALONG AN EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND
THE ONGOING STORM MODE WILL FAVOR BOTH SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26045.


...GUYER/IMY

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 31, 4:40 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlachua, Bradford, Citrus, Columbia, Dixie, Franklin and 19 more2 hr
Mar 31, 6:00 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCBrevard, Charlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Flagler, Glades and 25 more7 hr
Mar 31, 9:39 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Charlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee and 21 more66 min
Mar 31, 12:12 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Charlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee and 22 more63 min
Mar 31, 2:56 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Charlotte, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Highlands and 10 more64 min
Mar 31, 6:22 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Charlotte, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Highlands and 10 more83 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Florida, 2011Every tornado watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.