Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 320

March 31, 201125 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 31, 2011, 4:40 AM EDT for 25 counties in Florida. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 31, 2011, 4:40 AM EDT (08:40 UTC)
Expired
Mar 31, 2011, 6:45 AM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 25 counties

Alachua County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Citrus County, FL, Columbia County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Hamilton County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Levy County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Madison County, FL, Marion County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Union County, FL, Wakulla County, FL

The radar

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 00:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2011-03-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 156 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2011-03-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 69 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
156 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-94 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
644 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
87 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
69 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
11 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

480 
ACUS11 KWNS 310840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310840 
FLZ000-GAZ000-311045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0320
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/NWRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 310840Z - 311045Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN FL...WITH PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW FALLING PRESSURE WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS APALACHEE BAY.
WHILE SURFACE CONDITIONS INLAND ARE EITHER STABLE OR MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...A 30-40 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST AND HELP TO
FEED STORMS AS THEY FORM OVER THE WATER.

WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE...SOME CELLS ARE
BEGINNING TO SPLIT...AND WILL AFFECT LAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOL PROFILES
ALOFT...BUT ALSO SOME SUBSTANTIAL DRY MID LEVEL AIR WHICH MAY LIMIT
HOW FAR INLAND STORMS CAN PERSIST...AT LEAST IN A SEVERE STATE.
NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
WILL EXIST...AND INCREASE WITH TIME AS AN UPPER SPEED MAX ROTATES
AROUND THE TROUGH AND STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.

..JEWELL.. 03/31/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29808373 29918414 29618468 29588517 29798537 30258493
            30498450 30618370 30658311 30548258 29948189 28918170
            28028195 27878236 27848294 28648278 29028300 29358329
            29808373

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 31, 6:00 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCBrevard, Charlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Flagler, Glades and 25 more7 hr
Mar 31, 9:39 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Charlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee and 21 more66 min
Mar 31, 12:12 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Charlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee and 22 more63 min
Mar 31, 12:46 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBrevard, Charlotte, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry and 15 more7 hr
Mar 31, 2:56 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Charlotte, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Highlands and 10 more64 min
Mar 31, 6:22 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Charlotte, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Highlands and 10 more83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.