Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 298

May 13, 20116 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 13, 2011, 12:31 PM CDT for 6 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 13, 2011, 12:31 PM CDT (17:31 UTC)
Expired: May 13, 2011, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 93 counties

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Union County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Clay County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Webster County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Carroll County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 5%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 30%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 70%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 90%

Warnings issued inside it

58 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 13, 12:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Cross, Poinsett	51 min
May 13, 12:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Cross, St. Francis	46 min
May 13, 12:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ripley	44 min
May 13, 12:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee, Phillips, St. Francis	47 min
May 13, 1:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Poinsett	45 min
May 13, 1:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Randolph	39 min
May 13, 1:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Cross, Mississippi, Poinsett	52 min
May 13, 1:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ripley	44 min
May 13, 1:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene, Mississippi, Poinsett	28 min
May 13, 1:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Lee, Phillips, St. Francis	53 min
May 13, 1:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Randolph	21 min
May 13, 1:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Butler, Ripley	49 min
May 13, 2:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Mississippi, Poinsett	52 min
May 13, 2:08 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Carroll, Montgomery	2 hr
May 13, 2:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Lee, St. Francis	41 min
May 13, 2:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	DeSoto, Tate, Tunica	53 min
May 13, 2:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Butler, Stoddard	44 min
May 13, 2:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Mississippi	57 min
May 13, 2:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene	52 min
May 13, 2:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Attala, Carroll, Holmes, Montgomery	45 min
May 13, 2:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Gibson, Obion, Weakley	44 min
May 13, 2:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Carroll, Grenada, Montgomery	42 min
May 13, 3:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	DeSoto, Marshall, Tate	52 min
May 13, 3:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crockett, Haywood, Lauderdale, Tipton	62 min
May 13, 3:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	New Madrid	31 min
May 13, 3:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Mississippi	36 min
May 13, 3:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi, New Madrid	31 min
May 13, 3:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Graves, Hickman	34 min
May 13, 3:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	DeSoto, Panola, Tate, Tunica	47 min
May 13, 3:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Benton, Marshall	60 min
May 13, 3:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Carlisle, Hickman	29 min
May 13, 3:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Choctaw, Webster	33 min
May 13, 3:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Carroll, Crockett, Gibson, Haywood, Madison	64 min
May 13, 4:06 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Benton, Marshall	24 min
May 13, 4:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crockett, Fayette, Hardeman, Haywood, Madison, Shelby and 1 more	64 min
May 13, 4:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ballard, Carlisle, Graves, Hickman, McCracken	16 min
May 13, 4:26 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Carroll, Crockett, Gibson, Madison	34 min
May 13, 4:27 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Benton, Marshall	33 min
May 13, 4:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Calhoun, Chickasaw, Lafayette, Lee, Pontotoc	61 min
May 13, 4:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Marshall, Tate	44 min
May 13, 4:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Carroll, Henderson, Madison	57 min
May 13, 4:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Chester, Fayette, Hardeman, Madison	40 min
May 13, 4:51 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Alcorn, Benton, Tippah	39 min
May 13, 4:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Carroll, Henry, Weakley	53 min
May 13, 5:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Benton, Lafayette, Marshall, Union	55 min
May 13, 5:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Benton, Lafayette, Marshall, Panola, Tate, Union	63 min
May 13, 5:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Crittenden, Livingston	36 min
May 13, 5:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Carroll, Chester, Decatur, Henderson	37 min
May 13, 5:24 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Alcorn, Prentiss, Tippah	51 min
May 13, 6:03 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Montgomery, Webster	117 min
May 13, 6:05 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Alcorn, Tishomingo	40 min
May 13, 6:06 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Alcorn, Benton, Lafayette, Marshall, Pontotoc, Prentiss and 2 more	3 hr
May 13, 6:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lafayette, Lee, Pontotoc, Union	53 min
May 13, 6:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Prentiss, Tippah, Tishomingo	58 min
May 13, 6:34 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Tishomingo	41 min
May 13, 6:43 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Tishomingo	32 min
May 13, 6:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Choctaw, Montgomery, Webster	41 min
May 13, 6:55 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Choctaw, Webster	20 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1232 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -20 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 494 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 105 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 154 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 3.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 12, 9:41 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Boone, Cleburne, Conway, Crawford, Faulkner and 22 more	64 min
May 12, 10:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Baxter, Cleburne, Conway, Crawford, Faulkner, Franklin and 26 more	7 hr
May 12, 10:09 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay	66 min
May 13, 12:01 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Clay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene and 13 more	89 min
May 13, 2:44 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Crittenden, Mississippi	2 hr
May 13, 4:40 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Christian, Clinton and 40 more	95 min
May 13, 11:22 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Clay, Harlan, Knox, Leslie, Whitley	113 min
May 13, 2:47 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Harlan, Letcher	58 min
May 13, 5:03 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Christian, Hopkins, Logan, Muhlenberg, Todd, Trigg	57 min
May 13, 5:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allen, Butler, Caldwell, Calloway, Christian, Crittenden and 17 more	6 hr
May 12, 9:16 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atchison	59 min
May 13, 12:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Anderson, Blount, Bradley, Campbell, Carter, Claiborne and 24 more	6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Mississippi, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Tennessee, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.