Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 770

May 12, 201128 counties in Arkansas; 9 counties in Missouri; 4 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 12, 2011, 9:41 PM CDT for 28 counties in Arkansas; 9 counties in Missouri; 4 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 64 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 12, 2011, 9:41 PM CDT (02:41 UTC)
Expired
May 12, 2011, 10:45 PM CDT
In force
64 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 41 counties

Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Howell County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Wright County, MO, Bryan County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2011-05-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1521 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2011-05-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 84 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1521 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-8 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1233 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
84 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
153 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.7
Supercell composite
6.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

031 
ACUS11 KWNS 130242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130241
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTH TX AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND
NORTHERN AR/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293...

VALID 130241Z - 130345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293
CONTINUES.

GIVEN THE SCHEDULED 03Z EXPIRATION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 293...A
REPLACEMENT WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

A BROKEN CORRIDOR OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES FROM FAR
NORTH-CENTRAL AR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST OK LATE THIS EVENING.
AS AN UPPER VORT MAX PIVOTS EASTWARD/HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR...ADDITIONAL
STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITHIN
A RESIDUALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM SOUTHEAST OK INTO MUCH OF AR.
WITH A CONTINUING CONCERN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...A REPLACEMENT SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

..GUYER.. 05/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...
OUN...

LAT...LON   37689244 37689132 35229103 33839666 35179505 36209345
            37689244

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 12, 10:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaxter, Cleburne, Conway, Crawford, Faulkner, Franklin and 26 more7 hr
May 12, 10:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay66 min
May 13, 12:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Clay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene and 13 more89 min
May 13, 12:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Lawrence and 6 more6 hr
May 13, 2:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Mississippi2 hr
May 12, 9:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison59 min
May 13, 4:40 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLincoln, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.