Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Paducah, KY

May 13, 2011Ripley County, Missouri

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 13, 2011, 12:46 PM CDT for Ripley County, Missouri. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 13, 2011, 12:46 PM CDT (17:46 UTC)
Expired: May 13, 2011, 1:30 PM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.88 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Ripley County, MO

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 171 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 13, 12:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1232 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -20 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 494 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 105 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 154 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 3.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 13, 3:21 AM CDT, 9 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 13, 3:21 AM CDT, 9 hours 25 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST TODAY...REACHING SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY 00Z. MAY HAVE TO
MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL ON POPS...AND DECIDE IF WE NEED TWO SIX
HOUR PERIODS IN THE GRIDS FOR AM/PM. CONVECTION MAKING SLOW EAST
PROGRESS TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASING TREND WITH TIME AS IT MOVES EAST.

LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A REGENERATION OF COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS COVERS MOST OF THE
AREA. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS HAIL AND STRONG WIND. WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX IS SEEN OVER THE AREA...THE LOWER LEVEL
SHEAR IS MARGINAL. WILL LINGER A THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND SHOW A DECREASING TREND IN THE POPS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW PASSES BY SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE QUITE
VARIABLE WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE H5 PATTERN OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. REGARDLESS
OF THE MODEL OF CHOICE...THE IDEA IS...WE WILL STILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED LOW JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH MONDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER. SHOULD THE NEW MODELS VERIFY...ENDING POPS IN THE
EAST STARTING MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE A TAD TOO SOON. BUT WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES BEYOND MONDAY JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANTICIPATE VFR CEILINGS AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
OF THE WFO PAH TAF SITES IN THE WAKE OF THE MESOSCALE HIGH PRESSURE
INDUCED IN ADVANCE OF AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE AREA THIS MORNING...
DIURNAL CUMULUS BETWEEN 2.5-3.5KFT AGL SHOULD DEVELOP...YIELDING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS FROM KCGI TO KOWB BETWEEN 15Z
FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY. BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
KPAH AROUND 09Z SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE
ALREADY DURING THE 06Z-12Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME FOR KCGI/KPAH/KEVV
TAF SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, May 13, 4:15 AM CDT, 8 hours 31 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 12, 7:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Muhlenberg	20 min
May 13, 3:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Graves, Hickman	34 min
May 13, 3:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Carlisle, Hickman	29 min
May 13, 4:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ballard, Carlisle, Graves, Hickman, McCracken	16 min
May 13, 5:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Crittenden, Livingston	36 min
May 12, 11:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ripley	35 min
May 12, 11:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Carter, Ripley	44 min
May 13, 12:56 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Bollinger	19 min
May 13, 1:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ripley	44 min
May 13, 1:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Butler, Ripley	49 min
May 13, 2:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Butler, Stoddard	44 min
May 13, 3:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	New Madrid	31 min
May 13, 3:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi, New Madrid	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.