Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...REACHING
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ONGOING OVER ERN MO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT...AND
WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS...WITH VERY UNSTABLE LI VALUES IN THE MINUS 6 TO
MINUS 8 RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. EVEN MINUS 3 TO MINUS
5 OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST REGION. 0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
40 TO 45KTS...SO ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE LIKELY. HOWEVER
WITH SWLY SFC WINDS ALONG WITH VERY LOW 0 TO 1 KM SRH VALUES POINT
TO ONLY A LOW POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...THO IT IS NOT NIL.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME NON SEVERE AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WANE SUBSTANTIALLY.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW PASSES BY SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE QUITE
VARIABLE WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE H5 PATTERN OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. REGARDLESS
OF THE MODEL OF CHOICE...THE IDEA IS...WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED DOUBLE BARREL UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH ON AND
OFF CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MUCH...MUCH COOLER WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHCS OF LIGHT RAINS LOOK TO BE OVER IL/IN
COUNTIES. MAY NOT SEE THE SUN THE ENTIRE WEEKEND OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.

THE MED RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE NOT THAT FAR APART IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...A
LOBE OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY IN THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS
WILL DEPART THE PAH FORECAST AREA ON MON...RESULTING IN A DECREASE
IN RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE WEST...AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

MON NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE DRY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN SWRN IND/KY
PENNYRILE REGION. WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW SO CLOSE TO OUR REGION...
THIS SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN WAS HELD THROUGH TUE...AND ON AND OFF
BEYOND AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COMMENCES AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TIGHT
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THO.

BY FRI...A WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NWD THROUGH THE REGION...RESULTING
IN A MINOR INCREASE IN POPS AND A RETURN OF TSTMS TO THE FORECAST.
EXPECT LOTS OF COOL AIR AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE STREAMING SWD THROUGH
THE MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TUE...AFTER WHICH THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ONGOING THIS AFTN OVER
SE MO AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT AREAS NEAR MOST TAF SITES FROM 20Z
THROUGH 00Z KPAH/KCGI...THEN 00Z TO AROUND 03Z KEVV/KOWB. STORMS MAY
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z. WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK TO VFR CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOW CIGS POSSIBLY IN THE IFR RANGE
WILL WRAP SE INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1256 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-141000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1256 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...BRIEF TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY. THESE STORMS MAY HOLD
TOGETHER AND AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE QUAD STATE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY TONIGHT.

PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
RIVER FLOOD INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL.

PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
RIVER FLOOD INFORMATION. THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING IS FORECAST
TO DECREASE TO MINOR OR MODERATE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SOUTH OF A PINKNEYVILLE TO SHAWNEETOWN ILLINOIS LINE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
120 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MOZ110-114-131930-
STODDARD-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMFIELD...NEW MADRID
120 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. ONE STORM WAS DEVELOPING NEAR
CAMPBELL MISSOURI EAST AT 30 MPH. THROUGH 2:30 PM...THIS STORM
WILL AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF
DEXTER..BERNI...BAKER...PARMA...RISCO AND TALLAPOOSA. THE STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINS. INDIVIDUALS WORKING OR RECREATING OUTSIDE
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
216 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             3 S NAYLOR              36.53N 90.61W
05/13/2011  M1.75 INCH       RIPLEY             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED SOUTH OF TOWN ALONG ROUTE
            142. WIND DAMAGE ALSO REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. SMALL
            TREES DOWNED AS WELL AS A FEW POWER LINES. NO ESTIMATE ON
            WIND SPEED.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             CATRON                  36.61N 89.71W
05/13/2011  M0.75 INCH       NEW MADRID         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THE COMMUNITY.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     TSTM WND GST     CATRON                  36.61N 89.71W
05/13/2011  E50 MPH          NEW MADRID         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

SMITTY