Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 780

May 13, 201114 counties in Alabama; 6 counties in Kentucky; 17 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 13, 2011, 5:03 PM CDT for 14 counties in Alabama; 6 counties in Kentucky; 17 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 57 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 13, 2011, 5:03 PM CDT (22:03 UTC)
Expired
May 13, 2011, 6:00 PM CDT
In force
57 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 37 counties

Colbert County, AL, Cullman County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Franklin County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lauderdale County, AL, Lawrence County, AL, Limestone County, AL, Marion County, AL, Morgan County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL, Christian County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Logan County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Cheatham County, TN, Davidson County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Giles County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Perry County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Wayne County, TN, Williamson County, TN

The radar

The Northeast Alabama radar (KHTX), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2011-05-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1225 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2011-05-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 40 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1225 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-55 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
983 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

356 
ACUS11 KWNS 132204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132203
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-132300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER TN VALLEY / NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 132203Z - 132300Z

SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE E OF ONGOING SEVERE WATCH 298 AS THE
AIR MASS OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY AND NWRN AL SLOWLY RECOVERS IN
WAKE OF THE EARLIER MCS.  A WW IS POSSIBLE.

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM CNTRL AL
INTO E-CNTRL MS AND THEN EXTENDING NWD TOWARDS THE TN/MS/AL BORDER
REGION.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABSENCE OF CU OVER NWRN
AL AND WRN MIDDLE TN OWING TO THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE
EARLIER MCS.  THE UPPER LOW OVER MO IS SHIFTING EWD FOCUSING LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TOWARDS THE REGION.

INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AN IMPROVING TROPOSPHERIC WIND
PROFILE /SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ MAY
ACT TO IMPROVE STRONG-SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA.  DESPITE
THESE POSITIVES...SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED CINH /TEMPS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S/ SHOULD FAVOR A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ELEVATED AND ROOTED ABOVE THE RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
AS THEY MOVE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA.  THEREFORE...DMGG WIND
POTENTIAL SHOULD LESSEN AS STORMS MOVE EWD FROM WW 298 INTO THE WRN
PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH LARGE HAIL BECOMING THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH TIME FOR STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO REMAIN ROBUST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..SMITH.. 05/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   33378827 35168809 36298803 37088791 37368747 37198682
            36398651 35108663 33708694 33388719 33098759 33098795
            33378827

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 13, 11:22 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Etowah113 min
May 13, 5:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCColbert, Fayette, Franklin, Greene, Lamar, Lauderdale and 5 more6 hr
May 13, 12:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman89 min
May 13, 12:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBallard, Calloway, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman and 3 more6 hr
May 13, 2:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman2 hr
May 13, 2:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHarlan, Letcher58 min
May 13, 12:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Blount, Bradley, Campbell, Carter, Claiborne and 24 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.