Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
414 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
WILL NEED TO BR BRIEF TO DUE TO ONGOING CONDITIONS. IN A
NUTSHELL...LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH WED ALONG MUCH OF THE OHIO AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY AS A
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NIGHT HAVE LEFT A COUPLE
INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...NOT TO MENTION POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESP FROM
WEBSTER AND DAVIESS COUNTIES KENTUCKY.

QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY SET UP WILL BE THE KEY TO WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SETS UP. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT WILL STAND THE BEST CHC OF WIDE SPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF A
MURRAY KY TO GREENVILLE KY LINE. THUS WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...THO
FLOODING CHANCES INCREASE RAPIDLY AS ONE MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT....ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED...ALONG WITH VERY RICH MOISTURE LEVELS.
THUS...ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP SOUTH OF THE I
64 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN TAGGED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
TODAY. ANY OF THOSE STORMS WOULD MAINLY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AS THE
THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE.

THIS SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL RISK WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION RIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER NEGATIVELY TILTED H50
SHORT WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TRY TO FINALLY CLEAN THINGS OUT BY WED OR THU. THIS
LAST FRONT FRONT MAY PRODUCE MORE HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE
WEATHER...ESP TUE NIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID
AND DONE WED NIGHT OR THU...SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE REGION MAY GET
YET ANOTHER 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL...ESP ALONG AND N OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

RIVER ALREADY IN FLOOD...NEEDLESS TO SAY...COULD REACH SOME
HISTORICAL LEVELS IF CURRENT FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING MAY TAPER OFF SOME BY AFTERNOON...BUT SCT STORM
ACTIVITY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAILS AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS A SURFACE FRONT
MEANDERS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE MAY BE BREAKS OF VFR IN
BETWEEN CONVECTION TODAY...BUT EVEN RAINFREE AREAS COULD SEE 3K
FT TYPE CIG LEVELS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CARLISLE-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-
     HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-UNION KY-
     WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-
     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

MEFFERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1052 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-241000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1052 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR MARBLE HILL
MISSOURI TO NEAR EVANSVILLE INDIANA. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE
LARGE AND DAMAGING WINDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS
ALONG STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND LEVELS
WILL ONLY BE GOING UP WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. PLEASE REFER
OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS AT

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MOST LIKELY
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MORE LIKELY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOUNT WITH EACH
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK ARE PROJECTED TO FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND LEVELS
WILL ONLY BE GOING UP WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. PLEASE REFER
OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS AT

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL BE
MOST LIKELY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
308 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     REIDLAND                37.01N 88.53W
04/23/2011                   MCCRACKEN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LATE REPORT.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST PADUCAH            37.08N 88.74W
04/23/2011                   MCCRACKEN          KY   PUBLIC

            LATE REPORT. TREE DAMAGE REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
            UNDERPINNING ON SEVERAL MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED.

&&

SMITTY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
327 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
04/23/2011                   MCCRACKEN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNED AND UPROOTED TREES ALONG WITH SOME POWER POLES
            DAMAGED NEAR INTERSECTION OF BRUCE AND PECAN DRIVE.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
328 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     METROPOLIS              37.15N 88.71W
04/23/2011                   MASSAC             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DOWNED AND UPROOTED TREES REPORTED ALONG NORTH STREET.
            DOWNED POWER POLES. ONE TREE IS LAYING ACROSS A HOUSE.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TORNADO          DEXTER                  36.79N 89.96W
04/23/2011                   STODDARD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UNCOMFIRMED...TIEM ESTIMATED. COUNTY ROAD 637 RAILROAD
            COMPANY SHED DAMAGED. THE DAMAGE BLEW INTO A NEAR BY
            HOME. EMERGENCY MANAGER HAS PHOTOS.

&&

SMITTY