Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Paducah, KY

015 
WGUS73 KPAH 230152
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
852 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

MOC017-035-223-230645-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110423T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE MO-BOLLINGER MO-CARTER MO-
852 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT FOR
CARTER...BOLLINGER AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 845 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
FLASH FLOODING FROM AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM 
FREEMONT TO WHITEWATER MISSOURI. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF 
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT WILL...IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME...CAUSE 
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...FLOOD LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND 
QUICKLY FILL DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT AS MUCH 
AS 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST HOUR AND THAT RAINFALL 
RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA OVERNIGHT AS MORE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE 
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME 
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR 
CREEKS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.


&&

LAT...LON 3708 9122 3710 9097 3706 9096 3705 9079
      3727 9074 3727 9056 3731 9055 3731 9015
      3760 9015 3760 8987 3760 8986 3714 8987
      3713 8996 3706 8997 3705 9015 3692 9025
      3693 9067 3681 9067 3683 9123

$$

417 
WGUS73 KPAH 230338
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1038 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

MOC017-035-223-230346-
/O.CAN.KPAH.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110423T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE MO-BOLLINGER MO-CARTER MO-
1038 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CARTER...BOLLINGER
AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

THE LINE OF STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAVE MOVED 
SOUTH AND NO REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. THUS THE 
IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS PASSED. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE 
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY 
RAINFALL. MORE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY.


LAT...LON 3708 9122 3710 9097 3706 9096 3705 9079
      3727 9074 3727 9056 3731 9055 3731 9015
      3760 9015 3760 8987 3760 8986 3714 8987
      3713 8996 3706 8997 3705 9015 3692 9025
      3693 9067 3681 9067 3683 9123

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
636 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION ONLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
JUST CANCELLED THE SEVERE WATCH...AS THE MAIN CLUSTER IS
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...AND THE SCATTERED STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS HAVE REALLY WEAKENED.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT...20Z SOUNDING FROM KSGF INDICATES
JUST A MINOR CAP LEFT...WITH A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE
ABOVE. VERTICALLY DEVELOPED CU ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED RIGHT NEAR JOPLIN MISSOURI. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE
SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NOTHEAST CORNER OF OUR AREA...AND SHOULD
MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z.

LOOKING FOR THE REAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT
IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH THE FULL RANGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBILITIES. THEY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BECOME LINEAR
AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA...SO WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES MAY BE A
CONCERN IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY ON IN THE
EVENT AS WELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKING GOOD FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALL MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT...AND PROVIDE A PERSISTENT FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL INTO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCH
RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WATCH AREA...BUT A RELATIVELY
NARROW ZONE OF 4-5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS OUT.

BEYOND SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT AS AGRESSIVE IN SHIFTING THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA AS IN THE PAST
FEW DAYS...SO HAVE KEPT A BIT HIGHER POPS AND MORE QPF IN THE GRIDS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QPF NUMBERS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR GRIDS HAVE 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. WOULD PREFER TO GET THE FIRST ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS
IN HERE AND SEE HOW FAR SOUTHEAST IT GETS...BEFORE EXTENDING THE
WATCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE AROUND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN UPDATE TO 00Z TAF PACKAGE IS TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF TSRA FROM
ROUGHLY 00Z TO 05Z AS ONGOING DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE FA
CONTINUES TO MOVE/BUILD EASTWARD. THREAT TO THE TERMINALS MAY
PERSIST BEYOND 05Z ESPECIALLY EAST DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
ORGANIZATION/SPEED OF PROPAGATION. AS COLD FRONT LAYS DOWN ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND IMPACTS TO
SIG/VSBY COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CARLISLE-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-
     HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-UNION KY-
     WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-
     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
357 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-231000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
357 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN POSTED TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
DONIPHAN TO DEXTER TO PERRYVILLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR STATE
AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 03Z. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
WITH TIME THE STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO A LARGE LINE OR MULTIPLE
LINE SEGMENTS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY
THREAT...AS THE STORMS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A MAJOR CONCERN. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALONG AND BEHIND THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
FEW PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT FLOODING WILL
ONLY BECOME MORE INTENSE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. WE ARE WATCHING NEXT MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT FOR A
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AS WELL. IN FACT SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN MORE THAN ONE ROUND FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.

DRS