Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Paducah, KY

128 
WWUS53 KPAH 230122
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
822 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

MOC023-035-223-230133-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-110423T0145Z/
WAYNE MO-CARTER MO-BUTLER MO-
822 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BUTLER...CARTER
AND SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3707 9097 3706 9096 3706 9080 3711 9079
      3715 9062 3685 9061 3685 9111 3703 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 258DEG 34KT 3702 9066

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
636 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION ONLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
JUST CANCELLED THE SEVERE WATCH...AS THE MAIN CLUSTER IS
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...AND THE SCATTERED STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS HAVE REALLY WEAKENED.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT...20Z SOUNDING FROM KSGF INDICATES
JUST A MINOR CAP LEFT...WITH A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE
ABOVE. VERTICALLY DEVELOPED CU ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED RIGHT NEAR JOPLIN MISSOURI. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE
SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NOTHEAST CORNER OF OUR AREA...AND SHOULD
MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z.

LOOKING FOR THE REAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT
IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH THE FULL RANGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBILITIES. THEY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BECOME LINEAR
AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA...SO WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES MAY BE A
CONCERN IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY ON IN THE
EVENT AS WELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKING GOOD FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALL MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT...AND PROVIDE A PERSISTENT FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL INTO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCH
RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WATCH AREA...BUT A RELATIVELY
NARROW ZONE OF 4-5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS OUT.

BEYOND SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT AS AGRESSIVE IN SHIFTING THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA AS IN THE PAST
FEW DAYS...SO HAVE KEPT A BIT HIGHER POPS AND MORE QPF IN THE GRIDS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QPF NUMBERS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR GRIDS HAVE 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. WOULD PREFER TO GET THE FIRST ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS
IN HERE AND SEE HOW FAR SOUTHEAST IT GETS...BEFORE EXTENDING THE
WATCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE AROUND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN UPDATE TO 00Z TAF PACKAGE IS TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF TSRA FROM
ROUGHLY 00Z TO 05Z AS ONGOING DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE FA
CONTINUES TO MOVE/BUILD EASTWARD. THREAT TO THE TERMINALS MAY
PERSIST BEYOND 05Z ESPECIALLY EAST DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
ORGANIZATION/SPEED OF PROPAGATION. AS COLD FRONT LAYS DOWN ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND IMPACTS TO
SIG/VSBY COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CARLISLE-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-
     HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-UNION KY-
     WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-
     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
357 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-231000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
357 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN POSTED TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
DONIPHAN TO DEXTER TO PERRYVILLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR STATE
AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 03Z. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
WITH TIME THE STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO A LARGE LINE OR MULTIPLE
LINE SEGMENTS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY
THREAT...AS THE STORMS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A MAJOR CONCERN. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALONG AND BEHIND THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
FEW PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT FLOODING WILL
ONLY BECOME MORE INTENSE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. WE ARE WATCHING NEXT MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT FOR A
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AS WELL. IN FACT SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN MORE THAN ONE ROUND FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.

DRS