Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Memphis, TN

087 
WWUS54 KMEG 270139
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
839 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARC035-037-093-123-TNC157-167-270230-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0273.000000T0000Z-110427T0230Z/
CROSS AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-SHELBY TN-
TIPTON TN-
839 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TIPTON...WESTERN SHELBY...CRITTENDEN...NORTHEASTERN
ST. FRANCIS...EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN
CROSS COUNTIES...

AT 840 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GAVIN...OR NEAR MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EARLE...
MARION...PARKIN...TURRELL...WEST MEMPHIS...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS...
MILLINGTON...ST THOMAS...STACY...TOGO...DUVALL...MC DONALD...
SMITHDALE AND THREE FORKS.

 THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BRANDYWINE LAKE...CORONEE
  LAKE...LAKE MCKELLAR AND WAPANOCCA LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A STORM SHELTER OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 9046 3502 9055 3507 9059 3510 9061
      3533 9061 3552 8987 3501 8987 3501 9039
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 225DEG 27KT 3519 9018

$$

690 
WWUS54 KMEG 270205
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
905 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARC035-037-093-123-TNC157-167-270215-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0273.000000T0000Z-110427T0230Z/
CROSS AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-SHELBY TN-
TIPTON TN-
905 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TIPTON...WESTERN
SHELBY...CRITTENDEN...NORTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS...EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN CROSS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 905 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

.CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FUTURE WARNINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR YOUR AREA.

LAT...LON 3502 9046 3502 9055 3507 9059 3510 9061
      3533 9061 3552 8987 3501 8987 3501 9039
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 225DEG 27KT 3532 9002

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
656 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011/

DISCUSSION...

..SIGNIFICANT AND LIKELY PROTRACTED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ABOUT
TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH....

AT DISCUSSION TIME... THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG ALONG A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX... ACROSS SOUTHERN
AR... INTO NORTHWEST TN. RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ARKLAMISS
AND NORTHERN MS LED TO MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. SHEAR WAS
MARGINAL... WITH 3KM HELICITY VALUES OF 150 M2/S/2. THIS SHEAR
SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY THROUGH SUNSET... WITH THE DEEPENING OF A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN AR. THIS DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AR. DESPITE THE INITIALLY MARGINAL SHEAR... LARGE CAPES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION AND A TORNADO THREAT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCES FOR STRONG... LONG TRACKED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES RAMP UP IN
EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2...ACCOMPANIED BY MUCAPE IN NEAR OR IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW LCL VALUES.

SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
18Z NAM BRINGS THE WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER BY
06Z...1 AM CDT. INITIAL SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED
TORNADO RISK WILL HAVE MOVED UP THE ARKANSAS DELTA TO WESTERN KY
BY 06Z...WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST AR.
THIS LATTER SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT IS
PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND THE TN RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 18Z NAM IS SLOWER BRINGING THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE TROF THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. A 994MB SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED
TO LIFT FROM NEAR FT SMITH AR AT 15Z...TO NORTHEAST AR BY 21Z.
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD EXTEND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FURTHER IN TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A HEIGHTENED TORNADO RISK MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...AS IT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE I40 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A SQUALL
LINE WILL LIKELY TAKE SHAPE DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVER
NORTH OR NORTHEAST MS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN 80KT
MIDLEVEL REAR INFLOW JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. THE
18Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF CONTINUED TO GOOD AGREEMENT...LEADING TO
INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MAIN UPPER TROF WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST MO BY 06Z THURSDAY. MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR SUB SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF MEMPHIS.

FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SLOW
MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND. HAVE MADE SOME
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF SEVERE TSRA WERE HEADED EXTENDED OVER THE
ARKANSAS DELTA... NORTHEAST THROUGH MEM. THESE WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 01Z TO 02Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER SOUTHERN AR
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE DELTA... AND MAY HAVE TO AMEND TAF TO
ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS IN THE 02Z TO 05Z TIME FRAME.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  68  75  50  74 / 100 100  20   0
MKL  67  76  45  71 / 100 100  30   0
JBR  60  70  46  72 / 100 100  20   0
TUP  68  80  49  74 / 100 100  30   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-GIBSON-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-271045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1142 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS... NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH.

THE HIGH RISK AREA INCLUDES THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. AN ENHANCED RISK
OF STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ARRIVE OVERNIGHT... LIKELY PROVIDING
AND ADDITIONAL ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS IS A
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT... STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS SUFFICIENT
TO TOPPLE LARGE TREES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

THE CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...PUTTING STRESS
ON LEVEES. SIGNIFICANT... POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING RIVER FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ON THE MISSISSIPPI BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS RUN OFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL UPSTREAM BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
TORNADOES... DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ...A SQUALL LINE WILL CREATE
A PRIMARY RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER AREAS OF WEST
TENNESSEE TO THE EAST OF MEMPHIS... AND OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... STORM SPOTTERS...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
741 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OLIVE BRANCH            34.95N 89.83W
04/26/2011                   DESOTO             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING IN DESOTO COUNTY

&&

SVR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
750 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUBBS                   34.57N 90.37W
04/26/2011                   TUNICA             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE CENTER PIVOTS OVERTURNED

&&

SVR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
757 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLDWATER               34.69N 89.98W
04/26/2011                   TATE               MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH. ALUMINUM CARPORTS OVERTURNED

0745 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     COLDWATER               34.69N 89.98W
04/26/2011                   TATE               MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD HEADED NORTHEAST

0745 PM     HAIL             1 S COLDWATER           34.68N 89.98W
04/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       TATE               MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT HWY 51

&&

SVR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
802 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 E CORDOVA             35.15N 89.65W
04/26/2011                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            6 TO 8 INCHES ON ROADS AT PISGAH AND HOUSTON LEVEE

&&

SVR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
812 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     HAIL             SENATOBIA               34.62N 89.97W
04/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       TATE               MS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SVR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
813 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             COMO                    34.51N 89.94W
04/26/2011  E2.75 INCH       PANOLA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SVR