Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Memphis, TN

512 
WWUS54 KMEG 270030
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARC031-055-075-121-270041-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0269.000000T0000Z-110427T0100Z/
CRAIGHEAD AR-RANDOLPH AR-GREENE AR-LAWRENCE AR-
730 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LAWRENCE...
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE...SOUTH CENTRAL RANDOLPH AND WESTERN CRAIGHEAD
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 731 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

.CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FUTURE WARNINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR YOUR AREA.

LAT...LON 3631 9098 3609 9046 3571 9103 3572 9105
      3573 9104 3588 9104 3589 9124 3590 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 232DEG 27KT 3596 9091

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
656 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011/

DISCUSSION...

..SIGNIFICANT AND LIKELY PROTRACTED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ABOUT
TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH....

AT DISCUSSION TIME... THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG ALONG A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX... ACROSS SOUTHERN
AR... INTO NORTHWEST TN. RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ARKLAMISS
AND NORTHERN MS LED TO MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. SHEAR WAS
MARGINAL... WITH 3KM HELICITY VALUES OF 150 M2/S/2. THIS SHEAR
SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY THROUGH SUNSET... WITH THE DEEPENING OF A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN AR. THIS DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AR. DESPITE THE INITIALLY MARGINAL SHEAR... LARGE CAPES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION AND A TORNADO THREAT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCES FOR STRONG... LONG TRACKED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES RAMP UP IN
EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2...ACCOMPANIED BY MUCAPE IN NEAR OR IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW LCL VALUES.

SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
18Z NAM BRINGS THE WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER BY
06Z...1 AM CDT. INITIAL SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED
TORNADO RISK WILL HAVE MOVED UP THE ARKANSAS DELTA TO WESTERN KY
BY 06Z...WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST AR.
THIS LATTER SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT IS
PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND THE TN RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 18Z NAM IS SLOWER BRINGING THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE TROF THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. A 994MB SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED
TO LIFT FROM NEAR FT SMITH AR AT 15Z...TO NORTHEAST AR BY 21Z.
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD EXTEND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FURTHER IN TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A HEIGHTENED TORNADO RISK MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...AS IT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE I40 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A SQUALL
LINE WILL LIKELY TAKE SHAPE DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVER
NORTH OR NORTHEAST MS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN 80KT
MIDLEVEL REAR INFLOW JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. THE
18Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF CONTINUED TO GOOD AGREEMENT...LEADING TO
INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MAIN UPPER TROF WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST MO BY 06Z THURSDAY. MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR SUB SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF MEMPHIS.

FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SLOW
MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND. HAVE MADE SOME
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF SEVERE TSRA WERE HEADED EXTENDED OVER THE
ARKANSAS DELTA... NORTHEAST THROUGH MEM. THESE WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 01Z TO 02Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER SOUTHERN AR
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE DELTA... AND MAY HAVE TO AMEND TAF TO
ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS IN THE 02Z TO 05Z TIME FRAME.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  68  75  50  74 / 100 100  20   0
MKL  67  76  45  71 / 100 100  30   0
JBR  60  70  46  72 / 100 100  20   0
TUP  68  80  49  74 / 100 100  30   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-GIBSON-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-271045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1142 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS... NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH.

THE HIGH RISK AREA INCLUDES THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. AN ENHANCED RISK
OF STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ARRIVE OVERNIGHT... LIKELY PROVIDING
AND ADDITIONAL ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS IS A
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT... STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS SUFFICIENT
TO TOPPLE LARGE TREES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

THE CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...PUTTING STRESS
ON LEVEES. SIGNIFICANT... POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING RIVER FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ON THE MISSISSIPPI BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS RUN OFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL UPSTREAM BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
TORNADOES... DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ...A SQUALL LINE WILL CREATE
A PRIMARY RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER AREAS OF WEST
TENNESSEE TO THE EAST OF MEMPHIS... AND OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... STORM SPOTTERS...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
638 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             5 NW MILLINGTON         35.39N 89.95W
04/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

0630 PM     HAIL             HICKORY WITHE           35.24N 89.59W
04/26/2011  E0.88 INCH       FAYETTE            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE MILE SOUTH OF I 40

&&

SVR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
643 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TORNADO          FRIARS POINT            34.37N 90.64W
04/26/2011                   COAHOMA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN AND MOBILE HOME DAMAGE

&&

SVR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
646 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             HELENA                  34.53N 90.60W
04/26/2011  E1.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AT HELENA BRIDGE

&&

SVR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
651 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 N BARTLETT            35.24N 89.84W
04/26/2011                   SHELBY             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

0648 PM     HAIL             2 S WYNNE               35.20N 90.79W
04/26/2011  E0.75 INCH       CROSS              AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

SVR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
703 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     TORNADO          COAHOMA                 34.37N 90.52W
04/26/2011                   COAHOMA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE

0658 PM     HAIL             FARRELL                 34.26N 90.67W
04/26/2011  E2.75 INCH       COAHOMA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0658 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     SHERARD                 34.22N 90.72W
04/26/2011                   COAHOMA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SOUTHERN COAHOMA COUNTY

&&

SVR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
706 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             2 N CLARKSDALE          34.23N 90.58W
04/26/2011  E1.75 INCH       COAHOMA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SVR