Severe Thunderstorm Warning 446, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
428 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INDUCING LINEAR FORCING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH TX THIS MORNING
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE/MINI-BOW ECHO MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN D/FW METRO AND TOWARD OUR NE COUNTIES. MANY REPORTS
OVERNIGHT OF WIND DAMAGE...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN
1-2 INCHES. BIGGER HAIL WAS REPORTED YESTERDAY EVENING WITH MORE
DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ANY HAIL FROM HERE ON OUT
SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE AT WORST OR AROUND QUARTER SIZE. WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NE COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING...AS
DISSIPATION AND VEERING OF 35-45 KT LLJ SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING
OF CURRENT LINEAR COMPLEX. WE WILL LET THE THUNDERSTORM WATCH RIDE
UNTIL 5 AM CDT FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF AN EASTLAND...MINERAL WELLS
...DENTON...SHERMAN LINE.

THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
SETTLE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20...AND MODELS ARE OBVIOUSLY
STRUGGLING WITH THIS AND ADVERTISING THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO MIX
BACK TO THE WEST OVER WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
THIS IS QUITE POSSIBLE...ITS REALLY HARD TO KNOW WHERE BOUNDARY WILL
END UP WHEN MAX AFTERNOON HEATING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND COMING
EVENING. THIS HAS MADE FORECASTING AREAS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE TODAY VERY DIFFICULT. WILL ADVERTISE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS...TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS
WE AWAIT NEXT SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT AND ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z/7 PM THIS EVENING. MOST OF NORTH TX IS
IN A SLIGHT RISK AGAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WITH DIFFICULTY
DISCERNING HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
WILL DEFER TO NEXT FORECAST LATER TODAY DECIPHER WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND ANY AREAS FOR SEVERE STORMS. WE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WORDING FOR SOME SEVERE IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR NOW...BUT NOT TRY TO BE OVERLY SPECIFIC ON WHERE IT WILL OCCUR.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO NORTH TX TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NAM MODEL THE OUTLIER WITH HIGHER POPS MUCH
FURTHER NORTH. PER TRACK OF SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY...WILL FOLLOW NCEP AND CONSENSUS OF OTHER
MODELS AND KEEP BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-20 WED/WED NIGHT.

UPPER HIGH EXPANDS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL NUDGE STRONGER
NW FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX WITH MORE SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW INTO THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. WE WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY FAR E/NE COUNTIES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH HOTTER AND DRY WEATHER FURTHER TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH.

UPPER HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE CAP ALOFT OVER THE  WEST KEEPING THEM
DRY AND HOT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL PUSH THE CENTURY
MARK ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES INTO THIS COMING WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY IN THE FAR EXTENDED.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  74  94  75  98 /  20  50  10  10  20
WACO, TX              98  73  95  73  98 /  30  60  40  20  20
PARIS, TX             91  70  92  69  94 /  50  50  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            94  72  94  73  97 /  20  40  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          93  72  94  71  97 /  30  50  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            95  74  94  75  98 /  30  50  10  10  20
TERRELL, TX           94  72  95  71  98 /  50  50  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         97  72  95  72  99 /  30  60  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            98  73  95  73  97 /  30  60  50  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  71  95  72  98 /  10  40  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

05/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-221200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
415 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

DUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 AM     TSTM WND GST     FRISCO                  33.15N  96.83W
06/21/2011  E67 MPH          DENTON             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
332 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ARGYLE                  33.12N  97.18W
06/21/2011                   DENTON             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            2-3 10 INCH DIAMETER OAK TREES WERE SNAPPED JUST ABOVE THE
            GROUND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
333 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HEBRON                  33.03N  96.88W
06/21/2011                   DENTON             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            6-10 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES WERE SNAPPED OFF TREES IN
            HEBRON AND CARROLTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

TXZ094-104-105-120-121-210900-
FANNIN TX-HUNT TX-KAUFMAN TX-ROCKWALL TX-COLLIN TX-
337 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN COLLIN COUNTY
  SOUTHERN FANNIN COUNTY
  HUNT COUNTY
  NORTHERN KAUFMAN COUNTY
  ROCKWALL COUNTY

AT 337 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BONHAM TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF GREENVILLE TO 8 MILES EAST OF WYLIE TO
4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BAILEY...BONHAM...CADDO
MILLS...CAMPBELL...CELESTE...COMBINE...COMMERCE...CRANDALL...DODD
CITY...ECTOR...FATE...FORNEY...GREENVILLE...HEATH...HONEY GROVE...
KAUFMAN...LEONARD...QUINLAN...ROCKWALL...ROYSE CITY...TERRELL...WEST
TAWAKONI...WOLFE CITY AND BONHAM STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

IF THESE STORMS INTENSIFY...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3367 9586 3302 9586 3298 9591 3298 9594
      3284 9600 3283 9608 3258 9609 3255 9652
      3294 9652 3298 9646 3321 9631 3369 9635
      3370 9631
TIME...MOT...LOC 0837Z 280DEG 28KT 3364 9610 3317 9613
          3303 9632 3276 9667

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 AM     HAIL             9 NW DALLAS             32.86N  96.89W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       DALLAS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT LOOP 12 AND I-35 E NORTHWEST OF LOVE FIELD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
403 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

TXZ095-106-107-211000-
DELTA TX-HOPKINS TX-LAMAR TX-
403 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  DELTA COUNTY
  HOPKINS COUNTY
  LAMAR COUNTY

AT 403 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST
OF PARIS TO 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF COMMERCE TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF
GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BLOSSOM...COMO...COOPER...
CUMBY...DEPORT...PARIS...SULPHUR SPRINGS...COOPER LAKE PARK DOCTORS
CREEK AND COOPER LAKE PARK SOUTH SULPHUR.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3392 9554 3389 9554 3390 9551 3388 9549
      3387 9539 3389 9531 3297 9530 3295 9562
      3295 9566 3298 9567 3299 9586 3384 9585
      3387 9581 3385 9577 3390 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 0903Z 268DEG 37KT 3383 9568 3336 9568
          3300 9603

CAVANAUGH