Severe Thunderstorm Warning 428, NWS Fort Worth, TX

996 
WWUS54 KFWD 210310
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1010 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

TXC097-121-210319-
/O.EXP.KFWD.SV.W.0428.000000T0000Z-110621T0315Z/
DENTON TX-COOKE TX-
1010 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN COOKE EXPIRES AT 
1015 PM CDT...

AT 1009 PM CDT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING 
WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR WESTERN DENTON COUNTY.

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3343 9695 3333 9737 3335 9739 3338 9738
      3343 9738 3344 9749 3359 9749 3378 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 241DEG 29KT 3361 9695

$$


92

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
740 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.UPDATE...
WILL ISSUE UPDATE TO REMOVE RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY.
WATCH CONTINUES. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS FORMED...LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION AND
GUIDANCE BRINGS TSRA LINE ACROSS METROPLEX IN THE 02Z/05Z TIME
FRAME WITH MOST LIKELY TIME OF ARRIVAL DFW OF 03Z. HAVE ISSUED
AMENDMENTS FOR TEMPO TSRA TO REFLECT THIS. STORMS SHOULD HAVE A
COLD POOL BY THEN SO LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE LINE
AS WELL AS ALONG IT. ONE WILD CARD THAT MAY FURTHER AFFECT
FORECASTS IS THAT HRRR IS FORECASTING REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS
LINE. THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED YET BY ALL THE GUIDANCE...BUT SHOULD
TRENDS GO THAT WAY TSRA WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011/
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS
NORTH TEXAS SITS BETWEEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE
PLAINS INTO WEST TEXAS...AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE STRONG
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE. SPEEDS SHOULD
DECREASE SOME AS WE APPROACH SUNSET...THEREFORE BOTH THE WIND
ADVISORY AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8
PM.

ALL EYES WILL THEN BE PEELED AND DIRECTED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DEVELOPED BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE THE PRESENCE
OF A DRYLINE...AND HOT LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW
THIS SCENARIO TO UNFOLD SOMETIME IN THE 4 TO 6 PM TIMEFRAME JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS FURTHER S INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS INCLUDED
IN SPC DAY ONE AND DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ALONG WITH INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TOMORROW MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL THEN MAKE A PUSH INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY AS SECOND SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE REGION
AROUND THE BASE OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THINKING IS THAT BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS WILL GET A GOOD HALF
INCH OF RAIN WITH SOME AREAS GETTING UPWARDS OF AN INCH.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN INDICATING A DECENT
UPPER IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. INCLUDED LOW POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. BEYOND THAT IT
LOOKS LIKE 500 MB RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER NORTH TEXAS BRINGING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.    30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  95  76  95  76 /  30  30  50  20  20
WACO, TX              78  97  76  96  74 /   5  30  50  30  20
PARIS, TX             75  91  74  93  70 /  40  40  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            76  94  72  95  73 /  40  30  50  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          78  92  73  95  71 /  40  30  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  95  77 /  30  30  50  20  20
TERRELL, TX           77  94  75  96  73 /  20  30  50  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         76  97  76  96  75 /  10  30  50  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            77  98  75  96  73 /   5  20  40  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  97  71  96  72 /  30  30  50  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-211145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
325 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
CORSICANA TO TEMPLE LINE.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
817 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             2 E GRAHAM              33.10N  98.57W
06/20/2011  E2.50 INCH       YOUNG              TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
840 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     HAIL             LOVING                  33.27N  98.52W
06/20/2011  E1.75 INCH       YOUNG              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
842 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             ELIASVILLE              32.95N  98.75W
06/20/2011  E1.75 INCH       STEPHENS           TX   PUBLIC

            PING PONG AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL COVERING GROUND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
847 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     TORNADO          2 E ELIASVILLE          32.95N  98.72W
06/20/2011                   STEPHENS           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTED BY 2 SPOTTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
851 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             BRIDGEPORT              33.22N  97.77W
06/20/2011  M1.25 INCH       WISE               TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
852 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             RUNAWAY BAY             33.17N  97.87W
06/20/2011  E1.75 INCH       WISE               TX   AMATEUR RADIO