Severe Thunderstorm Warning 442, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1248 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.UPDATE...
PER NEW DEVELOPMENT OUT NEAR ABILENE WHERE DYESS AFB HAD A WIND
GUST AROUND 58 KTS AND COLLABORATION WITH THE STORMS PREDICTION
CENTER...WE HAVE ADDED SOME COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF
I-35E OR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...WHITNEY...
ENNIS LINE. SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE CAP ALOFT WILL HOLD BUT
WITH POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH DAYBREAK PER THE NAM AND
HRRR MODELS THIS FAR SOUTH...WE HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL COULD MAKE IT INTO THESE AREAS.

WE WILL REEVALUATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND THE WATCH COMING UP WITH
THE 4 AM CDT MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
METROPLEX
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE PROBLEMATIC TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODELS INSIST THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE METROPLEX...BUT IT
IS ALREADY PAST WICHITA FALLS AND MAY SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED. NEW STORMS FIRING ON THE FRONT MAY AFFECT THE METROPLEX
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AND THEY ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY GUIDANCE.
WILL ADD A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS FOR THE CELLS MOVING SOUTHEAST
OFF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY RETURNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS MAY OCCUR.

WACO
STRATUS EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT AIRPORT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WILL INCLUDE A VCTS GROUP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AS TIMING CAN BE
ADJUSTED FUTURE TAFS CAN ADD THE TEMPO GROUP WHEN NEEDED. 84

&&

.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR WATCH 529...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011/
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS
NORTH TEXAS SITS BETWEEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE
PLAINS INTO WEST TEXAS...AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE STRONG
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE. SPEEDS SHOULD
DECREASE SOME AS WE APPROACH SUNSET...THEREFORE BOTH THE WIND
ADVISORY AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8
PM.

ALL EYES WILL THEN BE PEELED AND DIRECTED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DEVELOPED BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE THE PRESENCE
OF A DRYLINE...AND HOT LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW
THIS SCENARIO TO UNFOLD SOMETIME IN THE 4 TO 6 PM TIMEFRAME JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS FURTHER S INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS INCLUDED
IN SPC DAY ONE AND DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ALONG WITH INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TOMORROW MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL THEN MAKE A PUSH INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY AS SECOND SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE REGION
AROUND THE BASE OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THINKING IS THAT BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS WILL GET A GOOD HALF
INCH OF RAIN WITH SOME AREAS GETTING UPWARDS OF AN INCH.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN INDICATING A DECENT
UPPER IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. INCLUDED LOW POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. BEYOND THAT IT
LOOKS LIKE 500 MB RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER NORTH TEXAS BRINGING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.    30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  76  97  78 /  50  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              76  96  74  97  76 /  50  30  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             74  93  70  94  72 /  50  20  10  20  20
DENTON, TX            72  95  73  96  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  95  71  96  73 /  50  10  10  20  20
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  97  78 /  50  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           75  96  73  97  76 /  50  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         76  96  75  97  75 /  50  30  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  96  73  97  74 /  40  30  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  96  72  98  72 /  50  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

84/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
102 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-211200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
102 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS. MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...HILLSBORO...CANTON LINE THROUGH SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
MAY ALSO RESULT IN STREET FLOODING...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING OF
TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...HILLSBORO...
CANTON LINE THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

05/

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