Severe Thunderstorm Warning 421, NWS Fort Worth, TX

220 
WWUS54 KFWD 210031
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
731 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

TXC237-210100-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0421.000000T0000Z-110621T0100Z/
JACK TX-
731 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN JACK COUNTY...

AT 729 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES 
NORTH OF JACKSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CUNDIFF IN RURAL NORTHEASTERN JACK COUNTY AT 740 PM CDT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3347 9829 3347 9798 3343 9798 3343 9792
      3321 9792 3319 9794 3328 9803 3327 9837
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 260DEG 28KT 3337 9813

$$


92

628 
WWUS54 KFWD 210050
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
750 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

TXC237-210100-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0421.000000T0000Z-110621T0100Z/
JACK TX-
750 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN JACK COUNTY...

AT 751 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN JACK COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3328 9804 3333 9803 3347 9807 3347 9798
      3343 9798 3343 9792 3321 9792 3319 9794
      3328 9803
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 259DEG 27KT 3340 9794

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
544 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.AVIATION...
NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS FORMED...LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION AND
GUIDANCE BRINGS TSRA LINE ACROSS METROPLEX IN THE 02Z/05Z TIME
FRAME WITH MOST LIKELY TIME OF ARRIVAL DFW OF 03Z. HAVE ISSUED
AMENDMENTS FOR TEMPO TSRA TO REFLECT THIS. STORMS SHOULD HAVE A
COLD POOL BY THEN SO LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE LINE
AS WELL AS ALONG IT. ONE WILD CARD THAT MAY FURTHER AFFECT
FORECASTS IS THAT HRRR IS FORECASTING REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS
LINE. THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED YET BY ALL THE GUIDANCE...BUT SHOULD
TRENDS GO THAT WAY TSRA WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011/
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS
NORTH TEXAS SITS BETWEEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE
PLAINS INTO WEST TEXAS...AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE STRONG
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE. SPEEDS SHOULD
DECREASE SOME AS WE APPROACH SUNSET...THEREFORE BOTH THE WIND
ADVISORY AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8
PM.

ALL EYES WILL THEN BE PEELED AND DIRECTED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DEVELOPED BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE THE PRESENCE
OF A DRYLINE...AND HOT LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW
THIS SCENARIO TO UNFOLD SOMETIME IN THE 4 TO 6 PM TIMEFRAME JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS FURTHER S INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS INCLUDED
IN SPC DAY ONE AND DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ALONG WITH INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TOMORROW MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL THEN MAKE A PUSH INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY AS SECOND SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE REGION
AROUND THE BASE OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THINKING IS THAT BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS WILL GET A GOOD HALF
INCH OF RAIN WITH SOME AREAS GETTING UPWARDS OF AN INCH.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN INDICATING A DECENT
UPPER IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. INCLUDED LOW POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. BEYOND THAT IT
LOOKS LIKE 500 MB RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER NORTH TEXAS BRINGING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.    30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  95  76  95  76 /  30  30  50  20  20
WACO, TX              78  97  76  96  74 /   5  30  50  30  20
PARIS, TX             75  91  74  93  70 /  40  40  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            76  94  72  95  73 /  40  30  50  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          78  92  73  95  71 /  40  30  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  95  77 /  30  30  50  20  20
TERRELL, TX           77  94  75  96  73 /  20  30  50  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         76  97  76  96  75 /  10  30  50  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            77  98  75  96  73 /   5  20  40  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  97  71  96  72 /  30  30  50  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>103-115>119-129>134-141>146-156>159.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-211145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
325 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
CORSICANA TO TEMPLE LINE.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     HAIL             2 SW OLNEY              33.35N  98.79W
06/20/2011  E0.75 INCH       YOUNG              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY SIZED HAIL IN OLNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             6 SSW NEWCASTLE         33.12N  98.79W
06/20/2011  E1.75 INCH       YOUNG              TX   PUBLIC

            NEAR 578 AND 179

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     HAIL             6 SE OLNEY              33.31N  98.70W
06/20/2011  E1.75 INCH       YOUNG              TX   PUBLIC

            BETWEEN OLNEY AND LOVING ON 114