Severe Thunderstorm Warning 436, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.AVIATION...
METROPLEX
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE PROBLEMATIC TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODELS INSIST THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE METROPLEX...BUT IT
IS ALREADY PAST WICHITA FALLS AND MAY SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED. NEW STORMS FIRING ON THE FRONT MAY AFFECT THE METROPLEX
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AND THEY ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY GUIDANCE.
WILL ADD A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS FOR THE CELLS MOVING SOUTHEAST
OFF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY RETURNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS MAY OCCUR.

WACO
STRATUS EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT AIRPORT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WILL INCLUDE A VCTS GROUP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AS TIMING CAN BE
ADJUSTED FUTURE TAFS CAN ADD THE TEMPO GROUP WHEN NEEDED. 84

&&

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR WATCH 529...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011/
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS
NORTH TEXAS SITS BETWEEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE
PLAINS INTO WEST TEXAS...AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE STRONG
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE. SPEEDS SHOULD
DECREASE SOME AS WE APPROACH SUNSET...THEREFORE BOTH THE WIND
ADVISORY AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8
PM.

ALL EYES WILL THEN BE PEELED AND DIRECTED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DEVELOPED BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE THE PRESENCE
OF A DRYLINE...AND HOT LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW
THIS SCENARIO TO UNFOLD SOMETIME IN THE 4 TO 6 PM TIMEFRAME JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS FURTHER S INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS INCLUDED
IN SPC DAY ONE AND DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ALONG WITH INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TOMORROW MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL THEN MAKE A PUSH INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY AS SECOND SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE REGION
AROUND THE BASE OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THINKING IS THAT BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS WILL GET A GOOD HALF
INCH OF RAIN WITH SOME AREAS GETTING UPWARDS OF AN INCH.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN INDICATING A DECENT
UPPER IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. INCLUDED LOW POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. BEYOND THAT IT
LOOKS LIKE 500 MB RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER NORTH TEXAS BRINGING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.    30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  95  76  95  76 /  30  30  50  20  20
WACO, TX              78  97  76  96  74 /   5  30  50  30  20
PARIS, TX             75  91  74  93  70 /  40  40  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            76  94  72  95  73 /  40  30  50  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          78  92  73  95  71 /  40  30  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  95  77 /  30  30  50  20  20
TERRELL, TX           77  94  75  96  73 /  20  30  50  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         76  97  76  96  75 /  10  30  50  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            77  98  75  96  73 /   5  20  40  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  97  71  96  72 /  30  30  50  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-211145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
325 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
CORSICANA TO TEMPLE LINE.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1122 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     HAIL             5 N AZLE                32.97N  97.53W
06/20/2011  E2.00 INCH       TARRANT            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1129 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E TIOGA               33.47N  96.89W
06/20/2011  M62 MPH          GRAYSON            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1131 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 PM     HAIL             HASLET                  32.97N  97.35W
06/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       TARRANT            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1133 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

TXZ100-210500-
YOUNG TX-
1133 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  YOUNG COUNTY

AT 1133 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF
OLNEY TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF THROCKMORTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE GRAHAM AND OLNEY.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3340 9896 3340 9842 3295 9843 3296 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0433Z 277DEG 22KT 3339 9859 3307 9916

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1138 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 PM     HAIL             2 SW JUSTIN             33.06N  97.32W
06/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       DENTON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1151 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PILOT POINT             33.40N  96.97W
06/20/2011                   DENTON             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            AUTO BODY ROOF BLOWN OFF ONTO 377 NEAR PILOT POINT