Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
801 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME CONTAINING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. COOLER...AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY. A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MAY
LINGER WITH CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
SCT SHRA WILL LINGER ALL MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO WRN COS SHORTLY. POSTED A WIND ADVY FOR THE W FOR THIS
AM...AS GUSTS COULD REACH 40-45KTS ON THE HILLS PER UPSTREAM OBS.
FLASH FLOODING SHOULD START TO RECEDE SHORTLY...AND MANY WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO DIE OFF. MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE FOR THE
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN STORE FOR THESE PERIODS OF THE FCST...AS
LITTLE CHANGE SEEMED TO BE IN ORDER...AND ACTIVE CURRENT WEATHER
PRECLUDES FURTHER DIAGNOSES. SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR EAST WILL MOVE AWAY AND THEY WILL MOVE INTO THE NW. WILL
ADJUST POPS APPROPRIATELY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS AS COLD AIR
RUSHES IN. TONIGHT...MINS DROP TO THE U30S AND M40S...WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

FRI LOOKS LESS BREEZY AND SHRA STAY CONTAINED IN THE NWRN MTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.  LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO WESTERN PA. GEFS
SHOWS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS AND CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK AND CHANCE POPS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENT EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS EXITING CWA TO THE EAST AT
12Z...THOUGH SHOWERS LINGER BEHIND FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

INTERESTINGLY...ALL TAF SITES REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS AT 12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF BOUT WITH MVFR IN THE SE /KMDT-KLNS/ THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS TAPER FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN CONTINUE ALONG WITH LLWS...THOUGH JET ALIGNMENT WILL SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 50 KTS AT 850
MB...GRADUALYL DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

QUIET NIGHT IN STORE...THOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY SLIP INTO KBFD
OVERNIGHT AS THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCTD MVFR CIGS EARLY NW...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR WITH CHANCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-
024-033.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ051>053-
056>059-063>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...KREKELER
AVIATION...RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1048 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-291500-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
1048 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-291500-
NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-
MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1048 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WATER LEVELS OF NUMEROUS SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL STAY NEAR...
OR OVER BANK-FULL THROUGH TODAY THEN GRADUALLY RECEDE. THIS WATER
WILL BE CHANNELED INTO THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING AT VARIOUS POINTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
804 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

PAZ064-065-281230-
ADAMS PA-YORK PA-
804 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS AND
WESTERN YORK COUNTIES...

AT 800 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
GETTYSBURG TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEYSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE NEAR HEIDLERSBURG AROUND 810 AM...MCSHERRYSTOWN AROUND 820 AM
AND WEIGELSTOWN AROUND 830 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 24 AND 29.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE
30...STATE ROAD 94...STATE ROAD 97.

LAT...LON 3972 7732 3988 7720 4012 7671 3973 7684
      3971 7699

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1019 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WAYNESBORO              39.75N  77.58W
04/28/2011                   FRANKLIN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EAST BRANCH ANTIETAM CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS AT RENFREW
            PARK. FIELD WATER CROSSED STATE LINE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100071

GAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1023 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW WELLSVILLE        40.08N  76.96W
04/28/2011                   YORK               PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. MAN REPORTED FRONT END OF CAR
            LIFTED OFF GROUND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100072

GAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1026 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW HARPER TAVERN      40.39N  76.59W
04/28/2011                   LEBANON            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES ACROSS REEDS CREEK ROAD. POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL
            COLLAPSE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100073

GAD

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