Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
120 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME
CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. WINDY...COOLER...AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY WITH
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPS. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MAY LINGER WITH CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SVA246 CONTINUES THROUGH 11 AM...BUT HAVE BEGUN TO TRIM OFF THE WRN
COS. MULTIPLE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE PRODUCING LITTLE/NO DAMAGE.
LOWEST LEVEL SCANS ON CLOSE INTO RADAR CELLS SHOWS LITTLE COHERENT
ROTATION BELOW 3KFT. THERE COULD BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE
WILDLY IMPRESSIVE MESOS AND THE GROUND. THAT WOULD BE A VERY GOOD
THING.

FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT...WITH ADD HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AND
VERY LOW FFG VALUES. STORMS ARE MOVING SO FAST AND THE HAIL
CONTAMINATION IS SO LIKELY THAT FLOODING MAY BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
SEVERAL STREAM GAUGES CHECKED RECWENTLY SHOW LITTLE/NO RESPONSE TO
RAIN FROM THE PAST 6-8 HRS.

HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WILL DECREASE VERY SLOWLY IN THE
W AND STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
NEARLY MID-SUMMER-LIKE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
POTENT...988 MB LOW WILL RACE NE ACROSS WRN LAKE ERIE...AND THE
SWRN PENINSULA OF ONTARIO EARLY THURSDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL PENN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
STRONG...LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WILL
LIKELY HELP TO GENERATE STRONG WSW WINDS ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND NW PLATEAU BEGINNING 11-13Z THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS OF
40 KTS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SUSQ VALLEY
AND SERN PENN...WHILE BKN-OVC STRATO CU WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCTD
-SHRA WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING ON ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE MAXS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.  LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO WESTERN PA. GEFS
SHOWS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS AND CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK AND CHANCE POPS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATE NIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL MOVE TO THE NE AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...WITH SCT-BKN MID BASED STRATO
CU ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA AT 0230Z.

VFR WILL PREDOMINATE...THOUGH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TSRA. LLWS WILL BE A BIG TICKET ITEM AFFECTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z IN THE KMDT TO KLNS AREAS.

WE SWAP THE LLWS FOR DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG/GUSTY
WSW SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA THURSDAY OVER CENTRAL AND
WRN PENN. SFC WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS LIKELY DURING THE DAY WITH
STRONG WINDS CONTINUING ALOFT...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM KJST TO KBFD...WHERE THE COOLER/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
MTNS WILL FORM MVFR TO IFR BKN-OVC CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON COULD BRING TEMPORARY CONDITIONS OF MVFR CIGS
THOUGH MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT...WINDS LOOK TO CEASE SHORTLY
AFTER OOZ AND THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT/FRI...SCTD MVFR CIGS EARLY..OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
SUN...VFR WITH INCREASED CHANCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
MON...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
ALL BUT THE FAR SE COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ONLY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
OCCURING AS THE SUPERCELLS SLIDE NE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LARGER
SHIELD OF MOD RAIN FOLLOWING UP FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD
ADD TO THE HEAVY LOAD ON THE CAMEL/S BACK.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...KREKELER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1004 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056-290215-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-
1004 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ057>059-063>066-290215-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1004 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1253 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GARRETT                 39.86N  79.06W
04/28/2011                   SOMERSET           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100051

DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
102 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

PAZ012-037-041-042-045-046-280545-
NORTHERN CLINTON PA-NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
102 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LYCOMING...NORTHWESTERN
SULLIVAN...SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON AND SOUTHEASTERN TIOGA COUNTIES...

AT 1254 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MILL HALL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LOCK HAVEN AT 105 AM...MCELHATTAN
AROUND 110 AM...SALLADASBURG AROUND 120 AM...COGAN STATION AROUND
130 AM...TROUT RUN AROUND 140 AM AND RALSTON AROUND 150 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 173 AND 180.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE
220...STATE ROAD 14...STATE ROAD 120.

LAT...LON 4161 7687 4157 7649 4100 7752 4118 7763
      4171 7689

FORECASTER: RXR

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