Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1025 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME
CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. WINDY...COOLER...AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY WITH
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPS. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MAY LINGER WITH CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TORNADO WATCH HAS EXPIRED AS OF 10 PM.

FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS THE
HUGE AREA OF MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE TN VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE NEXT 12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...MAINLY TAKING THE SEVERE THREAT OUT OF THE WORDING AND
GRIDDED DATA AND TWEAKING THE NEAR TERM POPS TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

PRECIP CHCS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A
AXIS OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SLIDES
GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HPC'S MDT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN EXCEEDING THE RELATIVELY LOW...1-3
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES COVERS ALL BUT THE LOWER SUSQ
REGION OF OUR CWA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEARLY MID-SUMMER-LIKE...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT...988 MB LOW WILL RACE NE ACROSS WRN LAKE ERIE...AND THE
SWRN PENINSULA OF ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PENN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. STRONG...LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WILL
LIKELY HELP TO GENERATE STRONG WSW WINDS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND NW PLATEAU BEGINNING 11-13Z THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS
POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SUSQ VALLEY
AND SERN PENN...WHILE BKN-OVC STRATO CU WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCTD
-SHRA WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING ON ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE MAXS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.  LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO WESTERN PA. GEFS
SHOWS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS AND CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK AND CHANCE POPS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATE NIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL MOVE TO THE NE AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...WITH SCT-BKN MID BASED STRATO
CU ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA AT 0230Z.

VFR WILL PREDOMINATE...THOUGH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TSRA. LLWS WILL BE A BIG TICKET ITEM AFFECTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z IN THE KMDT TO KLNS AREAS.

WE SWAP THE LLWS FOR DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG/GUSTY
WSW SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA THURSDAY OVER CENTRAL AND
WRN PENN. SFC WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS LIKELY DURING THE DAY WITH
STRONG WINDS CONTINUING ALOFT...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM KJST TO KBFD...WHERE THE COOLER/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
MTNS WILL FORM MVFR TO IFR BKN-OVC CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON COULD BRING TEMPORARY CONDITIONS OF MVFR CIGS
THOUGH MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT...WINDS LOOK TO CEASE SHORTLY
AFTER OOZ AND THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT/FRI...SCTD MVFR CIGS EARLY..OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
SUN...VFR WITH INCREASED CHANCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
MON...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
ALL BUT THE FAR SE COUNTIES OF THE CWA.

HEAVY RAIN IS AGAIN LIKELY BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...AND ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
HIGH PWAT AXIS OF 1.5-2 INCHES SHIFTS GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS PENN.

LOCALIZED RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES IN A ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD WILL
OCCUR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...KREKELER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1004 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056-290215-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-
1004 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ057>059-063>066-290215-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1004 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
808 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     TSTM WND DMG     E AUSTIN                41.64N  78.09W
04/27/2011                   POTTER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND WATER OVER ROADS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100048

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
840 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELKLAND                 41.99N  77.31W
04/27/2011                   TIOGA              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100049

JMC

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