Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
728 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME CONTAINING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WINDY...COOLER...AND
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY AND WILL
LAST INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPS. A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MAY
LINGER WITH CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

TORNADO WATCH AND FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE IN EFFECT. A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO RACE
NORTHEAST. AS YET GROUND TRUTH HAS BEEN LACKING AS STORMS HAVE
BEEN TRAVELING THE MORE SCENIC LESSER POPULATED PARTS OF THE
REGION.

FROM EARLIER...

PRECIP CHCS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A AXIS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SLIDES GRADUALLY
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HPCS MDT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN EXCEEDING THE RELATIVELY LOW...1-3
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES COVERS ALL BUT THE LOWER SUSQ
REGION OF OUR CWA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

SVR CONVECTION WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A TRAINING TSRA/HVY
RAIN EVENT OVERNIGHT. LOCALIZED 2 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY BY
12Z THU...WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL
OCCUR. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. EVENING OR MID SHIFT
MAY DECIDE TO EXPAND THIS WATCH SE IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEARLY MID-SUMMER-LIKE...MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT...988 MB LOW WILL RACE NE ACROSS WRN LAKE ERIE...AND THE
SWRN PENINSULA OF ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PENN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. STRONG...LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WILL
LIKELY HELP TO GENERATE STRONG WSW WINDS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND NW PLATEAU BEGINNING 11-13Z THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS
POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SUSQ VALLEY
AND SERN PENN...WHILE BKN-OVC STRATO CU WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCTD
-SHRA WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING ON ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE MAXS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.  LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO WESTERN PA. GEFS
SHOWS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS AND CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK AND CHANCE POPS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR FLYING CONDITIONS...WITH SCT-BKN HIGH-BASED STRATO
CU WERE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AT 1930Z.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRST TO BEGIN ACROSS NWRN PENN...AS THEY
ADVECT QUICKLY TO THE NE FROM THE OHIO/PA BORDER. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF PENN THIS EVENING.

VFR WILL PREDOMINATE...THOUGH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TSRA. LLWS WILL BE A BIG TICKET ITEM AFFECTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP OVERNIGHT BEGINNING GENERALLY BETWEEN 03-06Z. LLWS
WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CFRONT THURSDAY MORNING OVER
CENTRAL AND WRN PENN...BUT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 15Z IN THE KMDT TO
KLNS AREAS.

WE SWAP THE LLWS FOR DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING AND POSS STRONG/GUSTY
WSW SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA THURSDAY OVER CENTRAL AND
WRN PENN. SFC WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS LIKELY DURING THE DAY
THURS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM KJST TO KBFD...WHERE
THE COOLER/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MTNS WILL FORM MVFR TO IFR
BKN-OVC CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT/FRI...SCTD MVFR CIGS EARLY..OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
SUN...VFR WITH INCREASED CHANCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
MON...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
ALL BUT THE FAR SE COUNTIES OF THE CWA.

HEAVY RAIN IS AGAIN LIKELY BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...AND ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
HIGH PWAT AXIS OF 1.5-2 INCHES SHIFTS GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS PENN.

LOCALIZED RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES IN A ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD WILL
OCCUR. &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ006-011-012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-
046-049>053-056.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ006-011-012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...KREKELER
AVIATION...LAMBERT
HYDROLOGY...LA CORTE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUBOIS                  41.12N  78.76W
04/27/2011                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            SHED DAMAGED AND TREE DOWN ON QUARRY AVE. PUBLIC
            REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100046

LA CORTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
737 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEWPORT                 40.48N  77.13W
04/27/2011                   PERRY              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100047

LA CORTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
808 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     TSTM WND DMG     E AUSTIN                41.64N  78.09W
04/27/2011                   POTTER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND WATER OVER ROADS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100048

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
840 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELKLAND                 41.99N  77.31W
04/27/2011                   TIOGA              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100049

JMC

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