Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
202 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME
CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. WINDY...COOLER...AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY WITH
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPS. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MAY LINGER WITH CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SVA246 CONTINUES THROUGH 11 AM...BUT HAVE BEGUN TO TRIM OFF THE WRN
COS. MULTIPLE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE PRODUCING LITTLE/NO DAMAGE.
LOWEST LEVEL SCANS ON CLOSE INTO RADAR CELLS SHOWS LITTLE COHERENT
ROTATION BELOW 3KFT. THERE COULD BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE
WILDLY IMPRESSIVE MESOS AND THE GROUND. THAT WOULD BE A VERY GOOD
THING.

FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT...WITH ADD HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AND
VERY LOW FFG VALUES. STORMS ARE MOVING SO FAST AND THE HAIL
CONTAMINATION IS SO LIKELY THAT FLOODING MAY BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
SEVERAL STREAM GAUGES CHECKED RECWENTLY SHOW LITTLE/NO RESPONSE TO
RAIN FROM THE PAST 6-8 HRS.

HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WILL DECREASE VERY SLOWLY IN THE
W AND STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
NEARLY MID-SUMMER-LIKE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
POTENT...988 MB LOW WILL RACE NE ACROSS WRN LAKE ERIE...AND THE
SWRN PENINSULA OF ONTARIO EARLY THURSDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL PENN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
STRONG...LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WILL
LIKELY HELP TO GENERATE STRONG WSW WINDS ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND NW PLATEAU BEGINNING 11-13Z THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS OF
40 KTS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SUSQ VALLEY
AND SERN PENN...WHILE BKN-OVC STRATO CU WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCTD
-SHRA WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING ON ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE MAXS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.  LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO WESTERN PA. GEFS
SHOWS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS AND CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK AND CHANCE POPS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LATE NIGHT SCATTERED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO
THE NE AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WIDESPREAD VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...EXCEPT IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR. POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF
UPWARDS OF 50MPH IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE
MAJOR THREAT OF THESE STORMS IS GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

VFR WILL DOMINATE TOWARDS DAYLIGHT...THOUGH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TSRA. LLWS AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT IS THE OTHER
ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG LLWS OF UPWARDS OF 50-60KTS
WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES..CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z IN THE KMDT TO
KLNS AREAS.

WE SWAP THE LLWS FOR DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG/GUSTY
WSW SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA THURSDAY OVER CENTRAL AND
WRN PENN. SFC WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS LIKELY DURING THE DAY WITH
STRONG WINDS CONTINUING ALOFT...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM KJST TO KBFD...WHERE THE COOLER/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
MTNS WILL FORM MVFR TO IFR BKN-OVC CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON COULD BRING TEMPORARY CONDITIONS OF MVFR CIGS
THOUGH MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT...WINDS LOOK TO CEASE SHORTLY
AFTER O2Z AS THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT/FRI...SCTD MVFR CIGS EARLY..OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
SUN...VFR WITH INCREASED CHANCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
MON...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
ALL BUT THE FAR SE COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ONLY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
OCCURRING AS THE SUPERCELLS SLIDE NE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LARGER
SHIELD OF MOD RAIN FOLLOWING UP FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD
ADD TO THE HEAVY LOAD ON THE CAMEL/S BACK.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...KREKELER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1004 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056-290215-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-
1004 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ057>059-063>066-290215-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1004 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
226 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

PAZ035-036-056-063-280700-
CUMBERLAND PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-PERRY PA-
226 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN
CUMBERLAND...SOUTHEASTERN FULTON AND SOUTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTIES...

AT 225 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BIG COVE TANNERY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR FANNETTSBURG AROUND 240 AM...AMBERSON VALLEY
AROUND 250 AM AND BLAIN AROUND 300 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 183 AND 216...I-70 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 165 AND 170.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11...ROUTE
30...ROUTE 522.

LAT...LON 3972 7828 4008 7790 4006 7786 4019 7778
      4031 7766 4038 7753 4040 7754 4041 7752
      4024 7729 3972 7794

FORECASTER: RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
230 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

PAZ012-018-041-280700-
NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-
230 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CLINTON...NORTH CENTRAL
CENTRE AND NORTHWESTERN LYCOMING COUNTIES...

AT 225 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES NORTH OF BALD EAGLE
STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR GLEN UNION AROUND 240 AM...WATERVILLE AROUND
250 AM AND CAMMAL AROUND 300 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT STATE ROAD 120.

LAT...LON 4142 7713 4113 7751 4109 7763 4102 7778
      4107 7789 4154 7740 4154 7734

FORECASTER: RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
242 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

PAZ019-045-280715-
SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-
242 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CENTRE AND SOUTHEASTERN
CLINTON COUNTIES...

AT 240 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CENTRE HALL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR REBERSBURG AROUND
250 AM...MACKEYVILLE AROUND 300 AM...MCELHATTAN AROUND 310 AM AND
AVIS AROUND 320 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 161 AND 194...I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 78
AND 83.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 220...
ALTERNATE ROUTE 220...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD 26...STATE ROAD 45...
STATE ROAD 120.

LAT...LON 4109 7719 4107 7714 4105 7714 4075 7762
      4075 7766 4086 7780 4116 7747 4121 7733
      4121 7732

FORECASTER: RXR