Winter Storm Warning 11, NWS Juneau, AK

167 
WWAK47 PAJK 152139
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1239 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

AKZ017>022-025-160400-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0011.111116T0300Z-111116T1800Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...
HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...JUNEAU
1239 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY. 

* SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY EVENING AND PERSIST
  INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS. BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE
  VISIBILITIES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 PM AKST OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ024-026-160400-
/X.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0026.111116T0300Z-111116T1800Z/
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOON...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
1239 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY. 

* SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 8 TO INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING TUESDAY EVENING...WITH 
  GREATEST AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR ICE PELLETS LATE OVERNIGHT
  AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
  MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER CONTENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 PM AKST OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

053 
WWAK47 PAJK 160353
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
653 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

AKZ017>022-025-161500-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-111116T1800Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...
HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...JUNEAU
653 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY. 

* SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY EVENING AND 
  PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS. BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE 
  VISIBILITIES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM TUESDAY AKST OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ024-026-161500-
/X.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-111116T1800Z/
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOON...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
653 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY. 

* SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 8 TO INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING TUESDAY EVENING...WITH 
  GREATEST AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR ICE PELLETS LATE OVERNIGHT 
  AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO 
  MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER CONTENT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

264 
WWAK47 PAJK 160646
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
946 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

AKZ020-021-025-161800-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-111116T1800Z/
/X.EXA.PAJK.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-111116T1800Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...JUNEAU
946 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* SNOW...RAIN AND SNOW BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 TO INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME ALL SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
  AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO
  HIGH WATER CONTENT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&


$$

AKZ017>019-022-161800-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-111116T1800Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
946 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY. 

* SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 6 INCHES NEAR SKAGWAY...TO 12
  INCHES NEAR HAINES....AND 12 TO 18 INCHES NEAR YAKUTAT.

* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  MORNING.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
  REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM WEDNESDAY AKST OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ024-026-161800-
/X.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-111116T1800Z/
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOON...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
946 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY. 

* SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 TO INCHES.

* TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME ALL SNOW LATE
  TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO
  HIGH WATER CONTENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

638 
WWAK47 PAJK 161259
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
359 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

AKZ020-021-024>026-161400-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-111116T1800Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...ANGOON...JUNEAU...
PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
359 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE JUNEAU AND HOONAH AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ017>019-022-161800-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-111116T1800Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
359 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING. 

* SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 6 INCHES NEAR SKAGWAY...TO 12
  INCHES NEAR HAINES....AND 12 TO 18 INCHES NEAR YAKUTAT. SNOW MAY
  BE MIXED WITH RAIN NEAR ELFIN COVE.

* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW 
  WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 AM WEDNESDAY AKST OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

875 
WWAK47 PAJK 161747
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
847 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2011


AKZ017>019-022-161900-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-111116T1800Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
847 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING...

THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS WERE AT HAINES WITH 18 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW AND YAKUTAT 14 INCHES. SKAGWAY MAINTENANCE RECEIVED 6 INCHES.
THE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN OR CHANGED TO RAIN IN OF OF THE OTHER
ZONES. HEAVY SNOW IS STILL OCCURRING AT THIS TIME IN HAINES BUT
WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW BY ABOUT NOON.



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
317 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR PAJN WILL MOVE E OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
N-CENTRAL AREA TONIGHT...THEN BE WELL E OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE.
YET ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF TUE. USED A BLEND OF
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM FOR TONIGHT FOR WAY THEY HANDLE SYSTEM MOVING
THRU N-CENTRAL AREA...THEN SWITCHED TO GFS FOR TUE TO FOR BETTER
TRANSITION TO THE LONGER RANGE.

BIG ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS TONIGHT. SYSTEM MOVING IN
FOR TONIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE ATTM AND IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES IN. DEEP LAYER QVEC
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AND WITH MID-LEVELS
UNSTABLE...THE PRECIP RATES WILL BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES.
WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AREA AS WELL AS
THE PAEL ZONE FOR TONIGHT...AND A WINTER WX ADVY FOR THE PAGS
AREA. THINK AREAS FURTHER N WILL MOSTLY MISS THIS SYSTEM SO SEE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW THERE...AND FURTHER S WILL HAVE
SNOW...BUT RAIN IS LIKELY TO MIX IN AT TIMES AS SOME MILDER AIR
MOVES IN...REDUCING SNOW ACCUMS. THINK THE COAST MTNS FROM PAWG TO
PAJN WILL END UP WITH THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. WILL GO WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES FOR THE PAJN/PAPG
AREAS TONIGHT...5 TO 8 INCHES FOR THE PAOH/PAGN/PAEL AREAS...AND 3
TO 6 INCHES FOR PAGS AREA. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY TUE
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND OCEAN
ENTRANCES TO INNER CHANNELS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE INCREASED WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SRN INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN
AREA...THEN THY SHOULD DECREASE SLOWLY TUE. BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN OVER THE GULF AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE SW ON TUE.
MAY SEE RETURN OF GALES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TUE.

.LONG TERM...ARCTIC OUTBREAK SPREADING IN A N TO S SEQUENCE FROM
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE WERE TO DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF THE OUTBREAK, ESPECIALLY
IN THE PANHANDLE S OF FREDERICK SOUND. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

THE SHORT RANGE SECTION ABOVE DESCRIBES A SERIES OF LOWS TRACKING
ZONALLY ONSHORE THE NRN HLF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE LAST SUCH LOW WILL
BE A 1000 MB 200 NM SW OF PAYA AT 00Z WED AND DEEPENING TO 986 MB
100 NM SSW OF PAYA AT 12Z WED. THE RESULT WILL BE AN OVERRUN OF THE
EARLY STAGES OF ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND IS THE REASON FOR SNOW
TUE NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WED AND THU ALL PERSISTING LONGER THAN
USUAL FOR AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK.

THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK WED WILL BE SLOW TO LOSE
CLOUD COVER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD THAT A 500 MB TROUGH WILL
BE CONTINUING TO EXTEND S FM OVER PAMD AND SUPPORTING A 995 MB LOW
ABOUT 100 NM S OF PAYA WITH A LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION. THIS LARGE
SCALE CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT MIDDLE AND UPPER CLOUD CIGS THAT
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN A N TO S SEQUENCE WED THROUGH THU.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ021-022-
     024>026.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ017-019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-041-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

RWT/JBT