Small Craft Advisory 726, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
317 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR PAJN WILL MOVE E OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
N-CENTRAL AREA TONIGHT...THEN BE WELL E OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE.
YET ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF TUE. USED A BLEND OF
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM FOR TONIGHT FOR WAY THEY HANDLE SYSTEM MOVING
THRU N-CENTRAL AREA...THEN SWITCHED TO GFS FOR TUE TO FOR BETTER
TRANSITION TO THE LONGER RANGE.

BIG ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS TONIGHT. SYSTEM MOVING IN
FOR TONIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE ATTM AND IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES IN. DEEP LAYER QVEC
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AND WITH MID-LEVELS
UNSTABLE...THE PRECIP RATES WILL BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES.
WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AREA AS WELL AS
THE PAEL ZONE FOR TONIGHT...AND A WINTER WX ADVY FOR THE PAGS
AREA. THINK AREAS FURTHER N WILL MOSTLY MISS THIS SYSTEM SO SEE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW THERE...AND FURTHER S WILL HAVE
SNOW...BUT RAIN IS LIKELY TO MIX IN AT TIMES AS SOME MILDER AIR
MOVES IN...REDUCING SNOW ACCUMS. THINK THE COAST MTNS FROM PAWG TO
PAJN WILL END UP WITH THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. WILL GO WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES FOR THE PAJN/PAPG
AREAS TONIGHT...5 TO 8 INCHES FOR THE PAOH/PAGN/PAEL AREAS...AND 3
TO 6 INCHES FOR PAGS AREA. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY TUE
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND OCEAN
ENTRANCES TO INNER CHANNELS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE INCREASED WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SRN INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN
AREA...THEN THY SHOULD DECREASE SLOWLY TUE. BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN OVER THE GULF AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE SW ON TUE.
MAY SEE RETURN OF GALES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TUE.

.LONG TERM...ARCTIC OUTBREAK SPREADING IN A N TO S SEQUENCE FROM
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE WERE TO DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF THE OUTBREAK, ESPECIALLY
IN THE PANHANDLE S OF FREDERICK SOUND. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

THE SHORT RANGE SECTION ABOVE DESCRIBES A SERIES OF LOWS TRACKING
ZONALLY ONSHORE THE NRN HLF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE LAST SUCH LOW WILL
BE A 1000 MB 200 NM SW OF PAYA AT 00Z WED AND DEEPENING TO 986 MB
100 NM SSW OF PAYA AT 12Z WED. THE RESULT WILL BE AN OVERRUN OF THE
EARLY STAGES OF ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND IS THE REASON FOR SNOW
TUE NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WED AND THU ALL PERSISTING LONGER THAN
USUAL FOR AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK.

THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK WED WILL BE SLOW TO LOSE
CLOUD COVER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD THAT A 500 MB TROUGH WILL
BE CONTINUING TO EXTEND S FM OVER PAMD AND SUPPORTING A 995 MB LOW
ABOUT 100 NM S OF PAYA WITH A LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION. THIS LARGE
SCALE CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT MIDDLE AND UPPER CLOUD CIGS THAT
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN A N TO S SEQUENCE WED THROUGH THU.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ021-022-
     024>026.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ017-019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-041-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

RWT/JBT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1110 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M11.0 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            BACK LOOP ROAD

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M7.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FRITZ COVE

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M11.0 INCH                          AK   UTILITY COMPANY

            JUNEAU-DOUGLAS WATER TREATMENT

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M8.0 INCH                           AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            JUNEAU AIRPORT

1030 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M11.0 INCH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            JUNEAU FORECAST OFFICE

&&

GLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
246 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M11.0 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            BACK LOOP ROAD

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M11.0 INCH                          AK   UTILITY COMPANY

            JUNEAU-DOUGLAS WATER TREATMENT

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M7.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FRITZ COVE

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M8.0 INCH                           AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            JUNEAU AIRPORT

1030 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M11.0 INCH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            JUNEAU FORECAST OFFICE

1155 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M11.0 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NORTH DOUGLAS

1230 PM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  E4.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SHELTER ISLAND BRANCHES BREAKING DUE TO SNOW

&&

GLS