Gale Warning 416, NWS Juneau, AK

179 
FZAK52 PAJK 152111 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1210 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-160100-
1210 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL DEVELOP LATER
WEDNESDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-160100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1210 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING
TO 12 FT LATE. W SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-160100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1210 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-160100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1210 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING
TO 15 FT LATE. SNOW IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-160100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1210 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT
LATE. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR BAY AND PASSES...GUSTS TO
50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES...GUSTS TO 60 KT SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO
50 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-160100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1210 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
317 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR PAJN WILL MOVE E OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
N-CENTRAL AREA TONIGHT...THEN BE WELL E OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE.
YET ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF TUE. USED A BLEND OF
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM FOR TONIGHT FOR WAY THEY HANDLE SYSTEM MOVING
THRU N-CENTRAL AREA...THEN SWITCHED TO GFS FOR TUE TO FOR BETTER
TRANSITION TO THE LONGER RANGE.

BIG ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS TONIGHT. SYSTEM MOVING IN
FOR TONIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE ATTM AND IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES IN. DEEP LAYER QVEC
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AND WITH MID-LEVELS
UNSTABLE...THE PRECIP RATES WILL BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES.
WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AREA AS WELL AS
THE PAEL ZONE FOR TONIGHT...AND A WINTER WX ADVY FOR THE PAGS
AREA. THINK AREAS FURTHER N WILL MOSTLY MISS THIS SYSTEM SO SEE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW THERE...AND FURTHER S WILL HAVE
SNOW...BUT RAIN IS LIKELY TO MIX IN AT TIMES AS SOME MILDER AIR
MOVES IN...REDUCING SNOW ACCUMS. THINK THE COAST MTNS FROM PAWG TO
PAJN WILL END UP WITH THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. WILL GO WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES FOR THE PAJN/PAPG
AREAS TONIGHT...5 TO 8 INCHES FOR THE PAOH/PAGN/PAEL AREAS...AND 3
TO 6 INCHES FOR PAGS AREA. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY TUE
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND OCEAN
ENTRANCES TO INNER CHANNELS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE INCREASED WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SRN INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN
AREA...THEN THY SHOULD DECREASE SLOWLY TUE. BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN OVER THE GULF AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE SW ON TUE.
MAY SEE RETURN OF GALES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TUE.

.LONG TERM...ARCTIC OUTBREAK SPREADING IN A N TO S SEQUENCE FROM
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE WERE TO DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF THE OUTBREAK, ESPECIALLY
IN THE PANHANDLE S OF FREDERICK SOUND. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

THE SHORT RANGE SECTION ABOVE DESCRIBES A SERIES OF LOWS TRACKING
ZONALLY ONSHORE THE NRN HLF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE LAST SUCH LOW WILL
BE A 1000 MB 200 NM SW OF PAYA AT 00Z WED AND DEEPENING TO 986 MB
100 NM SSW OF PAYA AT 12Z WED. THE RESULT WILL BE AN OVERRUN OF THE
EARLY STAGES OF ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND IS THE REASON FOR SNOW
TUE NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WED AND THU ALL PERSISTING LONGER THAN
USUAL FOR AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK.

THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK WED WILL BE SLOW TO LOSE
CLOUD COVER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD THAT A 500 MB TROUGH WILL
BE CONTINUING TO EXTEND S FM OVER PAMD AND SUPPORTING A 995 MB LOW
ABOUT 100 NM S OF PAYA WITH A LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION. THIS LARGE
SCALE CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT MIDDLE AND UPPER CLOUD CIGS THAT
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN A N TO S SEQUENCE WED THROUGH THU.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ021-022-
     024>026.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ017-019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-041-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

RWT/JBT