Gale Warning 375, NWS Juneau, AK

486 
FZAK67 PAJK 152108 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1208 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-160100-
1208 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL DEVELOP LATER
WEDNESDAY.  

$$

PKZ310-160100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1208 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
317 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR PAJN WILL MOVE E OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
N-CENTRAL AREA TONIGHT...THEN BE WELL E OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE.
YET ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF TUE. USED A BLEND OF
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM FOR TONIGHT FOR WAY THEY HANDLE SYSTEM MOVING
THRU N-CENTRAL AREA...THEN SWITCHED TO GFS FOR TUE TO FOR BETTER
TRANSITION TO THE LONGER RANGE.

BIG ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS TONIGHT. SYSTEM MOVING IN
FOR TONIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE ATTM AND IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES IN. DEEP LAYER QVEC
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AND WITH MID-LEVELS
UNSTABLE...THE PRECIP RATES WILL BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES.
WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AREA AS WELL AS
THE PAEL ZONE FOR TONIGHT...AND A WINTER WX ADVY FOR THE PAGS
AREA. THINK AREAS FURTHER N WILL MOSTLY MISS THIS SYSTEM SO SEE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW THERE...AND FURTHER S WILL HAVE
SNOW...BUT RAIN IS LIKELY TO MIX IN AT TIMES AS SOME MILDER AIR
MOVES IN...REDUCING SNOW ACCUMS. THINK THE COAST MTNS FROM PAWG TO
PAJN WILL END UP WITH THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. WILL GO WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES FOR THE PAJN/PAPG
AREAS TONIGHT...5 TO 8 INCHES FOR THE PAOH/PAGN/PAEL AREAS...AND 3
TO 6 INCHES FOR PAGS AREA. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY TUE
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND OCEAN
ENTRANCES TO INNER CHANNELS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE INCREASED WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SRN INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN
AREA...THEN THY SHOULD DECREASE SLOWLY TUE. BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN OVER THE GULF AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE SW ON TUE.
MAY SEE RETURN OF GALES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TUE.

.LONG TERM...ARCTIC OUTBREAK SPREADING IN A N TO S SEQUENCE FROM
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE WERE TO DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF THE OUTBREAK, ESPECIALLY
IN THE PANHANDLE S OF FREDERICK SOUND. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

THE SHORT RANGE SECTION ABOVE DESCRIBES A SERIES OF LOWS TRACKING
ZONALLY ONSHORE THE NRN HLF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE LAST SUCH LOW WILL
BE A 1000 MB 200 NM SW OF PAYA AT 00Z WED AND DEEPENING TO 986 MB
100 NM SSW OF PAYA AT 12Z WED. THE RESULT WILL BE AN OVERRUN OF THE
EARLY STAGES OF ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND IS THE REASON FOR SNOW
TUE NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WED AND THU ALL PERSISTING LONGER THAN
USUAL FOR AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK.

THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK WED WILL BE SLOW TO LOSE
CLOUD COVER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD THAT A 500 MB TROUGH WILL
BE CONTINUING TO EXTEND S FM OVER PAMD AND SUPPORTING A 995 MB LOW
ABOUT 100 NM S OF PAYA WITH A LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION. THIS LARGE
SCALE CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT MIDDLE AND UPPER CLOUD CIGS THAT
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN A N TO S SEQUENCE WED THROUGH THU.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ021-022-
     024>026.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ017-019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-041-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

RWT/JBT