Gale Warning 417, NWS Juneau, AK

180 
FZAK51 PAJK 152119 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1219 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-160100-
1219 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL DEVELOP LATER
WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ011-160100-
GLACIER BAY-
1219 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN
THE EVENING. SNOW.
.WED...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.THU...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-160100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1219 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. SNOW.
.WED...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-160100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1219 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW.
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-160100-
ICY STRAIT-
1219 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-160100-
CROSS SOUND-
1219 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-160100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1219 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-160100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1219 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-160100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1219 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT
9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-160100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1219 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-160100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1219 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-160100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1219 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
317 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR PAJN WILL MOVE E OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
N-CENTRAL AREA TONIGHT...THEN BE WELL E OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE.
YET ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF TUE. USED A BLEND OF
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM FOR TONIGHT FOR WAY THEY HANDLE SYSTEM MOVING
THRU N-CENTRAL AREA...THEN SWITCHED TO GFS FOR TUE TO FOR BETTER
TRANSITION TO THE LONGER RANGE.

BIG ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS TONIGHT. SYSTEM MOVING IN
FOR TONIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE ATTM AND IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES IN. DEEP LAYER QVEC
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AND WITH MID-LEVELS
UNSTABLE...THE PRECIP RATES WILL BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES.
WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AREA AS WELL AS
THE PAEL ZONE FOR TONIGHT...AND A WINTER WX ADVY FOR THE PAGS
AREA. THINK AREAS FURTHER N WILL MOSTLY MISS THIS SYSTEM SO SEE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW THERE...AND FURTHER S WILL HAVE
SNOW...BUT RAIN IS LIKELY TO MIX IN AT TIMES AS SOME MILDER AIR
MOVES IN...REDUCING SNOW ACCUMS. THINK THE COAST MTNS FROM PAWG TO
PAJN WILL END UP WITH THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. WILL GO WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES FOR THE PAJN/PAPG
AREAS TONIGHT...5 TO 8 INCHES FOR THE PAOH/PAGN/PAEL AREAS...AND 3
TO 6 INCHES FOR PAGS AREA. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY TUE
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND OCEAN
ENTRANCES TO INNER CHANNELS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE INCREASED WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SRN INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN
AREA...THEN THY SHOULD DECREASE SLOWLY TUE. BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN OVER THE GULF AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE SW ON TUE.
MAY SEE RETURN OF GALES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TUE.

.LONG TERM...ARCTIC OUTBREAK SPREADING IN A N TO S SEQUENCE FROM
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE WERE TO DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF THE OUTBREAK, ESPECIALLY
IN THE PANHANDLE S OF FREDERICK SOUND. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

THE SHORT RANGE SECTION ABOVE DESCRIBES A SERIES OF LOWS TRACKING
ZONALLY ONSHORE THE NRN HLF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE LAST SUCH LOW WILL
BE A 1000 MB 200 NM SW OF PAYA AT 00Z WED AND DEEPENING TO 986 MB
100 NM SSW OF PAYA AT 12Z WED. THE RESULT WILL BE AN OVERRUN OF THE
EARLY STAGES OF ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND IS THE REASON FOR SNOW
TUE NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WED AND THU ALL PERSISTING LONGER THAN
USUAL FOR AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK.

THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK WED WILL BE SLOW TO LOSE
CLOUD COVER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD THAT A 500 MB TROUGH WILL
BE CONTINUING TO EXTEND S FM OVER PAMD AND SUPPORTING A 995 MB LOW
ABOUT 100 NM S OF PAYA WITH A LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION. THIS LARGE
SCALE CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT MIDDLE AND UPPER CLOUD CIGS THAT
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN A N TO S SEQUENCE WED THROUGH THU.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ021-022-
     024>026.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ017-019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-041-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

RWT/JBT