Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE DID HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS
SF SOUNDING. DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HOWEVER INCREASING
TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THIS AREA...THE CAP HAS BEEN ERODED ENOUGH
TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE. PERFORMED 20Z SPECIAL SOUNDING
SHOWING MODERATE 0-3KM HELICITIES OF 337 M2/S2. RUC SHOWING
INSTABILITIES AROUND 1000 J/KG OUT THAT WAY WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50-60KTS. STORMS ARE ROTATING AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

THE BIG WEATHER PRODUCER THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY CLEARING THE 4 CORNERS AREA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS THIS SYSTEM PICKS UP THE SURFACE LOW...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
START MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. INSTABILITIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE. WRF SHOWING
VALUES AS HIGH AS 60-70KTS. WOULD EXPECT THE TORNADO WATCH TO BE
CONTINUED AND EXPENDED FURTHER EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI BY EARLY MORNING AND
THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AROUND NOON TOMORROW. PRECIP ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY LIQUID. BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CLAYCOMB

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

PATTERN SHIFT TAKES PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RETURN OUR FLOW TO
A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.  IN ADDITION TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL FRONTS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY.

MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME SO KEPT POPS ON THE
LOW SIDE.  COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH THE SATURDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

GAEDE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY OF CIGS AND VISIBILITY CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITHIN STORMS AND MOST
LIKELY VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE JLN AND SGF AERODROMES AFTER 09Z...CONCERNS THEN SHIFT
TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...CIGS FOR TUESDAY.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
317 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-082130-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
317 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
  PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS COULD
  DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. MORE
  NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
  ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO CAMDENTON LINE AS A COLD
  FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
  WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  STORMS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
  WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS THIS AFTERNOON.

  A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
  TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
  ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
  OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST. BY TONIGHT...
  INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A GREATER THREAT
  FOR STORMS CONTAINING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR LARGER
  AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
  POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A NEVADA TO FORT
  LEONARD WOOD TO WEST PLAINS LINE.

  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
  CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
  STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL
  BE INCREASED OVER ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
  THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
  THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
  STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD INCREASE ON TUESDAY ACROSS
  SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI IF THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWER TO MOVE
  OUT OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING WEST
 OF A LINE FROM ELDON TO SPRINGFIELD TO CASSVILLE THIS AFTERNOON.
 SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED FOR COMMUNITIES WEST OF A LINE FROM SALEM
 TO WEST PLAINS AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
 SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
639 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     N EBENEZER              37.34N 93.31W
01/07/2008                   GREENE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DAMAGED REPORTED IN CITY.

&&

WDAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     BLIZZARD         N STRAFFORD             37.27N 93.12W
01/07/2008                   GREENE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5100 BLOCK OF NORTH TREE LANE HOUSE DESTROYED.

&&

WDAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     N STRAFFORD             37.27N 93.12W
01/07/2008                   GREENE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5100 BLOCK OF NORTH TREE LANE HOUSE DESTROYED.

&&

WDAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
647 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TORNADO          N STRAFFORD             37.27N 93.12W
01/07/2008                   GREENE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PERSON TRAPPED IN HOUSE REQUIRING RESCUE.

&&

WDAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             BILLINGS                37.07N 93.55W
01/07/2008  E1.75 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WDAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
655 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     TORNADO          3 N MARSHFIELD          37.38N 92.91W
01/07/2008                   WEBSTER            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO ON GROUND JUST NORTH OF MARSHFIELD

&&

LDOOLEY