Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE DID HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS
SF SOUNDING. DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HOWEVER INCREASING
TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THIS AREA...THE CAP HAS BEEN ERODED ENOUGH
TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE. PERFORMED 20Z SPECIAL SOUNDING
SHOWING MODERATE 0-3KM HELICITIES OF 337 M2/S2. RUC SHOWING
INSTABILITIES AROUND 1000 J/KG OUT THAT WAY WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50-60KTS. STORMS ARE ROTATING AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

THE BIG WEATHER PRODUCER THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY CLEARING THE 4 CORNERS AREA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS THIS SYSTEM PICKS UP THE SURFACE LOW...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
START MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. INSTABILITIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE. WRF SHOWING
VALUES AS HIGH AS 60-70KTS. WOULD EXPECT THE TORNADO WATCH TO BE
CONTINUED AND EXPENDED FURTHER EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI BY EARLY MORNING AND
THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AROUND NOON TOMORROW. PRECIP ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY LIQUID. BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CLAYCOMB

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

PATTERN SHIFT TAKES PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RETURN OUR FLOW TO
A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.  IN ADDITION TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL FRONTS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY.

MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME SO KEPT POPS ON THE
LOW SIDE.  COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH THE SATURDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

GAEDE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY OF CIGS AND VISIBILITY CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITHIN STORMS AND MOST
LIKELY VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE JLN AND SGF AERODROMES AFTER 09Z...CONCERNS THEN SHIFT
TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...CIGS FOR TUESDAY.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
707 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
707 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
  SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  BASEBALLS...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH AND TORNADOES.
  SEVERAL REPORTS OF TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED WITH
  THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
  AND CENTRAL MISSOURI CAN EXPECT DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
  200 AM. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS...GENERALLY ALONG AND
  SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SALEM IN DENT COUNTY TO BRANSON IN
  TANEY COUNTY CAN EXPECTED ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AFTER 10 PM.
  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI BY 10 PM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
  MOVE EAST...WITH ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THIS IS A
  VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE

  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
  CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
  STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL
  BE INCREASED OVER ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
  THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
  THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
  STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD INCREASE ON TUESDAY ACROSS
  SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI IF THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWER TO MOVE
  OUT OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NECESSARY TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
  OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             REPUBLIC                37.12N 93.48W
01/07/2008  E1.75 INCH       GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WDAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
715 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
01/07/2008  E0.75 INCH       GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME HAIL REPORTED AT WEST BYPASS AND GRAND AVE.

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
722 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     TSTM WND GST     SPRINGFIELD             37.20N  93.29W
01/07/2008  E70 MPH          GREENE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            70 MPH WINDS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. HAIL INCREASING IN
            SIZE.

&&

JSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
728 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     TORNADO          SPRINGFIELD             37.20N  93.29W
01/07/2008                   GREENE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO AT JAMES RIVER AND KANSAS EXPRESSWAY NEAR
            CHESTERFIELD VILLAGE

&&

JSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
731 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     TORNADO          N MARSHFIELD            37.34N 92.91W
01/07/2008                   WEBSTER            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HOME DESTROYED AT MISSION HOME ROAD.

&&

WDAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
733 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     TORNADO          E MARSHFIELD            37.34N 92.91W
01/07/2008                   WEBSTER            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DAMAGE TO HOMES, CELL PHONE TOWERS AND PEOPLE INJURED
            THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WEBSTER COUNTY.

&&

WDAVIS