Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LONG TRACKED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN
CONVECTIVE WATCHES ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS WITH A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE WESTERN
MISSOURI OZARKS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH AMPLE SHEAR
AND HELICITY ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

A 03Z SOUNDING HAS BEEN LAUNCHED AND WILL PROVIDE FURTHER DETAILS
ON THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA.
BALLOON WILL REACH 400 MB IN ABOUT 10 MINUTES WITH DATA BEING SENT
SHORTLY.

ANGLE

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE DID HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS
SF SOUNDING. DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HOWEVER INCREASING
TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THIS AREA...THE CAP HAS BEEN ERODED ENOUGH
TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE. PERFORMED 20Z SPECIAL SOUNDING
SHOWING MODERATE 0-3KM HELICITIES OF 337 M2/S2. RUC SHOWING
INSTABILITIES AROUND 1000 J/KG OUT THAT WAY WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50-60KTS. STORMS ARE ROTATING AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

THE BIG WEATHER PRODUCER THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY CLEARING THE 4 CORNERS AREA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS THIS SYSTEM PICKS UP THE SURFACE LOW...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
START MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. INSTABILITIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE. WRF SHOWING
VALUES AS HIGH AS 60-70KTS. WOULD EXPECT THE TORNADO WATCH TO BE
CONTINUED AND EXPENDED FURTHER EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI BY EARLY MORNING AND
THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AROUND NOON TOMORROW. PRECIP ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY LIQUID. BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CLAYCOMB

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

PATTERN SHIFT TAKES PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RETURN OUR FLOW TO
A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.  IN ADDITION TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL FRONTS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY.

MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME SO KEPT POPS ON THE
LOW SIDE.  COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH THE SATURDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

GAEDE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DUE TO TSRA AND SHRA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER KSGF WITH KJLN ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE TRAINING CONVECTION. TSRA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
TO SHRA AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AFTER 10Z. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1232 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090645-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1232 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
  THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
  AND POTENTIALLY TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
  WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

  FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT AS STORMS MOVE
  REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
  CORRIDOR TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW
  STRONG STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
  STORMS COULD INCREASE TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI IF
  THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF
 INTERSTATE 44.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE VICHY              38.14N 91.72W
01/07/2008                   MARIES             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POSSIBLE TORNADO...SEVERAL HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR
            DESTROYED INCLUDING A MOBILE HOME MOVED FROM ITS
            FOUNDATION AT THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 449 AND
            COUNTY ROAD 454. OTHER DAMAGE WEST OF VICHY ON HIGHWAY FF
            AND SOUTHWEST OF VICHY ON COUNTY ROAD 527.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N STRAFFORD           37.31N 93.12W
01/08/2008                   GREENE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 125 NORTH OF TOWN CLOSED TO TRAFFIC DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
101 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S STRAFFORD           37.22N 93.12W
01/08/2008                   GREENE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 125 SOUTH OF TOWN CLOSED TO TRAFFIC DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
110 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
01/08/2008                   GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            FIELD FLOODED AT 1100 SOUTH SCENIC. WATER OVER ROAD AT
            SCENIC AND WHITESIDE STREET.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
128 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 AM     HAIL             DOGWOOD                 37.04N 92.83W
01/08/2008  E1.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
129 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 AM     HAIL             7 NNW HARTVILLE         37.34N 92.56W
01/08/2008  E0.75 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

HATCH