Tornado Warning 44, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 080609
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

MOC161-080620-
/O.EXP.KSGF.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-080108T0615Z/
PHELPS MO-
1210 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR PHELPS COUNTY EXPIRES AT 1215 AM CST...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORM THAT
PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3778 9174 3779 9181 3772 9182 3760 9199
      3760 9203 3801 9203 3801 9197 3802 9197
      3806 9184 3805 9164 3816 9163 3789 9159
TIME...MOT...LOC 0610Z 226DEG 47KT 3813 9146

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
916 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LONG TRACKED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN
CONVECTIVE WATCHES ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS WITH A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE WESTERN
MISSOURI OZARKS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH AMPLE SHEAR
AND HELICITY ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

A 03Z SOUNDING HAS BEEN LAUNCHED AND WILL PROVIDE FURTHER DETAILS
ON THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA.
BALLOON WILL REACH 400 MB IN ABOUT 10 MINUTES WITH DATA BEING SENT
SHORTLY.

ANGLE

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE DID HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS
SF SOUNDING. DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HOWEVER INCREASING
TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THIS AREA...THE CAP HAS BEEN ERODED ENOUGH
TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE. PERFORMED 20Z SPECIAL SOUNDING
SHOWING MODERATE 0-3KM HELICITIES OF 337 M2/S2. RUC SHOWING
INSTABILITIES AROUND 1000 J/KG OUT THAT WAY WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50-60KTS. STORMS ARE ROTATING AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

THE BIG WEATHER PRODUCER THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY CLEARING THE 4 CORNERS AREA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS THIS SYSTEM PICKS UP THE SURFACE LOW...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
START MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. INSTABILITIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE. WRF SHOWING
VALUES AS HIGH AS 60-70KTS. WOULD EXPECT THE TORNADO WATCH TO BE
CONTINUED AND EXPENDED FURTHER EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI BY EARLY MORNING AND
THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AROUND NOON TOMORROW. PRECIP ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY LIQUID. BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CLAYCOMB

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

PATTERN SHIFT TAKES PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RETURN OUR FLOW TO
A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.  IN ADDITION TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL FRONTS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY.

MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME SO KEPT POPS ON THE
LOW SIDE.  COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH THE SATURDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

GAEDE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY OF CIGS AND VISIBILITY CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITHIN STORMS AND MOST
LIKELY VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE JLN AND SGF AERODROMES AFTER 09Z...CONCERNS THEN SHIFT
TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...CIGS FOR TUESDAY.

GAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 541 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008/

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE DID HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS
SF SOUNDING. DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HOWEVER INCREASING
TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THIS AREA...THE CAP HAS BEEN ERODED ENOUGH
TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE. PERFORMED 20Z SPECIAL SOUNDING
SHOWING MODERATE 0-3KM HELICITIES OF 337 M2/S2. RUC SHOWING
INSTABILITIES AROUND 1000 J/KG OUT THAT WAY WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50-60KTS. STORMS ARE ROTATING AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

THE BIG WEATHER PRODUCER THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY CLEARING THE 4 CORNERS AREA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS THIS SYSTEM PICKS UP THE SURFACE LOW...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
START MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. INSTABILITIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE. WRF SHOWING
VALUES AS HIGH AS 60-70KTS. WOULD EXPECT THE TORNADO WATCH TO BE
CONTINUED AND EXPENDED FURTHER EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI BY EARLY MORNING AND
THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AROUND NOON TOMORROW. PRECIP ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY LIQUID. BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CLAYCOMB

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

PATTERN SHIFT TAKES PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RETURN OUR FLOW TO
A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.  IN ADDITION TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL FRONTS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY.

MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME SO KEPT POPS ON THE
LOW SIDE.  COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH THE SATURDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
707 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
707 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
  SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  BASEBALLS...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH AND TORNADOES.
  SEVERAL REPORTS OF TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED WITH
  THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
  AND CENTRAL MISSOURI CAN EXPECT DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
  200 AM. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS...GENERALLY ALONG AND
  SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SALEM IN DENT COUNTY TO BRANSON IN
  TANEY COUNTY CAN EXPECTED ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AFTER 10 PM.
  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI BY 10 PM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
  MOVE EAST...WITH ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THIS IS A
  VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE

  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
  CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
  STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL
  BE INCREASED OVER ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
  THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
  THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
  STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD INCREASE ON TUESDAY ACROSS
  SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI IF THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWER TO MOVE
  OUT OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NECESSARY TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
  OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1040 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 SE GALENA             37.02N 94.58W
01/07/2008                   NEWTON             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            FUNNEL CLOUD SEEN 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALENA.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1049 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 SE PINEVILLE          36.55N 94.33W
01/07/2008                   MCDONALD           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FUNNEL CLOUD JUST SOUTHEAST OF PINEVILLE.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1059 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     TORNADO          3 N MARSHFIELD          37.38N 92.91W
01/07/2008                   WEBSTER            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL, 6 INJ *** 1 FATALITY WITH 6 INJURIES AS A
            RESULT OF A TORNADO NORTH OF MARSHFIELD ON QUARRY ROAD.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSE MONETT            36.87N 93.90W
01/07/2008                   BARRY              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ON FARM ROAD 1095 SOUTH OF BB
            HIGHWAY ALONG THE BARRY AND LAWRENCE COUNTY LINE.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1107 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     TORNADO          4 W STRAFFORD           37.27N 93.19W
01/07/2008                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL *** ONE CONFIRMED FATALITY JUST WEST OF
            STRAFFORD.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1108 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 W HARTVILLE           37.25N 92.64W
01/07/2008                   WRIGHT             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN 7 MILES WEST OF HARTVILLE.

&&

BARJENBRUCH