Lakeshore Flood Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WHUS41 KBUF 281412
CFWBUF

LAKESHORE HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
912 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...STRONG WINDS WILL BRING LAKESHORE FLOODING TODAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC
PROVINCE TODAY. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW HAS CROSSED
EASTERN LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO 60 MPH OVER THE LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND SHIFT...
RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS...AND LONG FETCH UP THE LENGTH OF
THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE A SEICHE ON LAKE ERIE...WITH A SURGE OF
WATER AT THE NORTHEAST END OF THE LAKE.

NYZ010-085-282100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-081228T2100Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
912 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL
PRODUCE A SURGE OF WATER AT THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE.

THE WATER LEVEL ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE IS RISING RAPIDLY THIS
MORNING. AT 9 AM...THE WATER LEVEL AT THE BUFFALO COAST GUARD
STATION WAS ABOUT 3 FEET ABOVE LOW WATER DATUM AND RISING RAPIDLY.
THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO BETWEEN 8 AND 9 FEET ABOVE
LOW WATER DATUM BY MIDDAY. FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET.

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PEOPLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST END OF
LAKE ERIE SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION... OR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

$$

HITCHCOCK

000 
WHUS41 KBUF 281532
CFWBUF

LAKESHORE HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...STRONG WINDS WILL BRING LAKESHORE FLOODING TODAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC
PROVINCE TODAY. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW HAS
CROSSED EASTERN LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO 60 MPH OVER THE LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND SHIFT...
RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS...AND LONG FETCH UP THE LENGTH
OF THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE A SEICHE ON LAKE ERIE...WITH A SURGE OF
WATER AT THE NORTHEAST END OF THE LAKE.

NYZ010-085-282100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-081228T2100Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1032 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL
PRODUCE A SURGE OF WATER AT THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE.

THE WATER LEVEL ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE IS RISING RAPIDLY THIS
MORNING. AT 1030 AM...THE WATER LEVEL AT THE BUFFALO COAST GUARD
STATION WAS ABOUT 7 FEET ABOVE LOW WATER DATUM AND RISING RAPIDLY.
THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 9 FEET ABOVE LOW
WATER DATUM BY MIDDAY. FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET.

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PEOPLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST END OF
LAKE ERIE SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION... OR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

$$

HITCHCOCK

000 
WHUS41 KBUF 281620
CFWBUF

LAKESHORE HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1120 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...STRONG WINDS WILL BRING LAKESHORE FLOODING TODAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC
PROVINCE TODAY. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW HAS
CROSSED EASTERN LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO 60 MPH OVER THE LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND SHIFT...
RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS...AND LONG FETCH UP THE LENGTH
OF THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE A SEICHE ON LAKE ERIE...WITH A SURGE OF
WATER AT THE NORTHEAST END OF THE LAKE.

NYZ010-085-282100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-081228T2100Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1120 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL
PRODUCE A SURGE OF WATER AT THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE.

THE WATER LEVEL AT THE BUFFALO COAST GUARD WAS NEAR THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 8 FEET. THE WATER LEVEL APPEARS TO BE LEVELING OFF AT
ABOUT 8 FEET. THE WATER WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PEOPLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST END OF
LAKE ERIE SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION... OR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

$$

HITCHCOCK

000 
WHUS41 KBUF 282030
CFWBUF

LAKESHORE HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH WATER...

.A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS BLOWING UP THE FULL FETCH OF LAKE ERIE
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH WATER AND VERY HIGH WAVES AT THE
NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATER THIS
EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL
AWAY...ALLOWING LAKE LEVELS TO RECEDE.

NYZ010-085-290100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-081229T0100Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
330 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH WATER AND VERY HIGH WAVES AT THE
NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE WATER LEVEL AT THE BUFFALO COAST GUARD REACHED 8.1 FEET AT
1048 AM THIS MORNING...JUST ABOVE THE 8 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. THE
WATER LEVEL HAS SINCE STABILIZED AT AROUND 7 FEET. WHILE THIS IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 8 FOOT FLOOD STAGE...THE ELEVATED LAKE LEVEL
COMBINED WITH VERY HIGH WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME IMPACT
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

ROUTE 5 IS CLOSED IN THE TOWN OF HAMBURG DUE TO OVER WASH FROM
LAKE ERIE. THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO RECEDE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PEOPLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST END OF
LAKE ERIE SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

$$

HITCHCOCK

000 
WHUS41 KBUF 282348
CFWBUF

LAKESHORE HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

NYZ010-085-290100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-081229T0100Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
648 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING. 

LAKE LEVELS HAVE DROPPED WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AS OF 645 PM AND
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER...THEREFORE THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

$$

JJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN QUEBEC BY
THIS EVENING. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL CROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK BY MID MORNING AND CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BRING TUMBLING TEMPERATURES AND HIGH WINDS TODAY. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL AREA CREEKS. SEE
HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS***

SHOWERS LIKELY WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT TODAY...THEN STRONG WINDS
AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FRONT.
THE PATH OF A DEEPENING LOW IS NOT PERFECT FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT...A
BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS A BIT STRONGER
THAN LAST EVENT...60 KTS AT 3K FT...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE OPTIMUM
FOR MIXING THIS DOWN WITH TREMENDOUS COLD ADVECTION (850MB
TEMPERATURES AT BUFFALO DROP FROM 11C AT 12Z TO -9C BY 21Z) THE
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT IS BETTER POSITIONED ON THE 06Z NAM THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH A 9MB 3 HOUR RISE OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AT 15Z
AND 6MB BETWEEN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AT 18Z. ALSO SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME SUNSHINE HELPING THE
MIXING. THUS WE HAVE CONTINUED THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE WITH THE FRONT...FROM 60 TO 45 IN AN HOUR
OR TWO...BUT UNLIKE USUAL CASES THIS TIME OF YEAR...NO POST FRONTAL
SNOW IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING AND THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LAKE SNOW TO THE EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE NAM
BUFKIT SHOWS SUBSIDENCE (IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND UNDER
THE APPROACHING RIDGE) CAPPING CONVECTION BELOW 5 THOUSAND FEET, SO
THERE IS ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS EAST
OF THE LAKE MIANLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAP IS DOWN TO ARND 4
THSD FT AND TEMPS MARGINAL ARND -8C TO -9C AND THERE IS A LACK OF
CRYSTL GROWTH IN CLOUD LYR. WILL KEEP ANY ACCUMS ON THE LIGHT SIDE
UNDER AN INCH. ELSEWHERE SKIES SHLD START OUT PTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHWR
TO MUCH OF THE REGION LATER MONDAY. THE NAM IS STILL MUCH DRIER THAN
THE GFS...AND AGREE WITH EARLIER FCSTR THAT IT TENDS TO STRUGGLE
WITH WAA PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE TREND TOWARD WETTER SOLUTION OF
THE GFS AND SREF MEAN WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND
LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE THESE POPS FURTHER. TEMPS ALOFT
AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT ALL
SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE A GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AT THE
PRESENT TIME CURRENT THINKING IS AMNTS SHLD BE UNDER AN INCH BUT
WILL GO WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE AMNTS THERE MAY
HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED WITH LTR FCSTS. ALSO EXPECT RATHER BRISK W-NW
WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYS AS IT GOES BY.

ON TUESDAY THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF MAINE. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH AGAIN IN ITS WAKE TO SUPPORT SOME
LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE FOR A FEW HOURS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
BUT AGAIN THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. OFF LK
ERIE TEMPS AGAIN ARENT QUITE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT ANY LK
ACTIVITY AND LOW LVL MOISTURE IS LIMITED. ANY LAKE ACTIVITY OFF LK
ONTARIO WILL SHUT OFF AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE AND THE START OF WAA ALOFT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW A DECENT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
LATEST 12Z/27 GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE 00Z/27 ECMWF AND
CANADIAN GEM IN HAVING A MORE WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW WITH THE
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE. MOST OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CAPTURE THIS
FEATURE AS WELL. THIS SHOULD BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL STAY
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT IT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD IN LTR
FORECASTS. AIRMASS IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY ON NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE BUILDS A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN FOR THURSDAY...A RARITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY. THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NOAM SECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION AS THE NAO/AO BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE IN
RESPONSE TO HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS
GREENLAND.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF THE
PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE CANADIAN GEM HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN CUTTING A MAJOR LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER BIG WARM UP FOLLOWED BY A HIGH WIND EVENT
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING IN THAT
DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH BOTH STILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOME SEMBLANCE OF
MILLER TYPE B CYCLOGENESIS WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ON THE
COAST. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE ACHIEVED.
STAY TUNED AS THIS COULD BE A MAJOR SYSTEM FOR SOMEWHERE IN THE
NORTHEAST OR GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THAT SAID...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIND SHEAR ISSUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 2 KFT REMAINING
IN THE 50-60 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THAT TIME.

DURING SUNDAY...A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
13Z AND 18Z...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF MODERATE
SHOWERS THAT SHOULD BRIEFLY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR A
FEW HOURS. IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL SHOWERS...A WEDGE OF
DRIER AIR SHOULD THEN RESULT IN CIGS/VSBYS BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO
VFR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS LATER ON AND
DROPS CIGS BACK TO MVFR FOR LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OF GREATER CONCERN TO AVIATION INTERESTS ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE VERY
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPS TO MIX DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO THE 25 TO
40 KNOT RANGE FOLLOWING THE FROPA...ALONG WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO WHERE FUNNELLING EFFECTS WILL HELP TO LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE STRONG WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN PERSIST FOR MOST OF
THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE CONTINUED FOR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE AROUND MID MORNING THEN EXITING
THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO HIGH END
GALES WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS AND A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS
TO 50 KNOTS LIKELY. WE WILL HOLD THE FORECAST TO HIGH END GALES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW CHANCE OF SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT
MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF A FEW GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS.

THE GALES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY
BRIEFLY APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ON
LAKE ONTARIO.

WITH THE ROUTINE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...HAVE ALSO CONTINUED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FOR TODAY AND MUCH OF
TONIGHT. WHILE WINDS IN THIS AREA WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS WILL
BE OBSERVED ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THEY WILL STILL BE PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE SCA RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO LOW END GALE FORCE
/35-40 KTS/ LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SOLID 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY ACROSS THE BUFFALO
AREA HEADWATERS. THIS COMBINED WITH A TOTAL SNOWMELT (SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT  OF 1 TO 2 INCHES) RESULTED IN FLOODING ON ALL THE
BUFFALO AREA CREEKS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ELLICOTT CREEK, THE FLOOD WATERS ARE NOW RECEDING ON
THESE CREEKS WITH THE END OF THE RAINFALL AND DIMINISHING
SNOWMELT...AND LEVELS ARE NOW BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARNING MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED FOR ELLICOTT CREEK IF IT CONTINUES TO RISE.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA AND RAPIDS AS
WELL AS FOR THE GENESEE RIVER AT AVON. THE RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY IN
COMBINATION WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE IMPRESSIVE MELT DOWN OF THE
SNOWPACK HAS RESULTED IN MAJOR RISES ON THESE WATERWAYS.

OATKA CREEK IS FORECAST TO CREST NEAR FLOOD STAGE AT GARBUTT, AND A
WARNING MAY BE ISSUED TODAY IF IT RISES MORE THAN FORECAST.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BLACK RIVER IN LEWIS
COUNTY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING.
THIS FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. CONDITIONS ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKESHORE FLOODING THAN THE LAST HIGH WIND EVENT
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
FOLLOWING THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH A QUICK SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FAST SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND
INCREASE IN SPEED MAY PRODUCE A SEICHE...WITH THE LAKE WATERS
SLOSHING EASTWARD AND PRODUCING A STORM SURGE AT THE NORTHEAST END
OF THE LAKE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GLERL LAKE ERIE WATER LEVEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE TAKES THE LEVEL TO ABOUT 7 FEET...AND THIS MODEL
OFTEN UNDER-FORECASTS THE SURGE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AS WITH PAST EVENTS...THE LAKESHORE
FLOODING RISK IS IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE FIRST RISE IS ALWAYS THE HIGHEST...WITH SUCCESSIVE
SLOSHES ALWAYS LOWER THAN THE FIRST. THUS...EXPECT THE GREATEST
RISK FOR LAKESHORE FLOODING TO BE ALONG THE ERIE COUNTY SHORELINE
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ010-085.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ004-005-014.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ013-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING
         FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
         EVENING FOR LOZ042-043-062-063.
         GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
         FOR LOZ044-045-064-065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
         EST MONDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...APB/JJR/SFM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJP
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJP
AVIATION...JJR/SFM
MARINE...JJP/JJR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

NYZ010-085-282045-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
339 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS
AND ALSO CATTARAUGUS CREEK. IN ADDITION TO THE RIVER FLOODING...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINFALL AND RAPID SNOWMELT HAS
RESULTED IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING...AND ALSO WIND GUSTS
OR DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-282045-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
339 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT WIND GUSTS OR DAMAGE TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-005-014-282045-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-ONTARIO-
339 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT WIND GUSTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>003-011-012-019-282045-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
339 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT WIND GUSTS OR DAMAGE TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ013-020-021-282045-
LIVINGSTON-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
339 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT WIND GUSTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-282045-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
339 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-282045-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
339 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042-043-062-063-282045-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
339 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ044-045-064-065-282045-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
339 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK