Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
536 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 95.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO REMOVE SOME OF THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND TO ADD LIMESTONE TO THE WATCH PER REQUEST
FROM SPC. NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE 6 PM TO REPLACE CURRENT
WATCH. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TO SHOW
FASTER CLEARING OUT OF THE PRECIP THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST
AS COLD AIR IS BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.  TR.92

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY BUSY WEATHER DAY...

A VERY STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
(UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE) HAS ROTATED INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. FURTHER SOUTH...ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. STRONGER INSTABILITIES...AND A SUB-TROPICAL
JET MAX HAVE LIKELY HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE FORMATION OF THE SOUTHERN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MAIN BODY OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION LIKELY WILL FIRE OFF
INTO A SQUALL LINE (AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS) AND HOT-FOOT IT
INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THERE ARE SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THESE EVENTS LIKELY
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST DEW DAYS.

LOOK FOR MILD TO COOL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL COOL
FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WE HAVE CHANGED THE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS A BIT...MAINLY LOWERING LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. #26
WE WILL HOLD ON WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR
MAYBE AFTER. THE TORNADO WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM.

 &&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  56  71  50  81  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
WACO, TX              54  72  50  81  56 / 100  20  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             58  70  51  79  54 / 100  60  10   0   0
DENTON, TX            54  71  46  81  56 / 100  20  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  71  46  82  55 / 100  20  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            56  72  54  81  60 / 100  20  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           54  71  48  82  56 / 100  30  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         55  69  50  81  57 / 100  40  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            54  72  50  81  55 / 100  30  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-311000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
415 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM PALO PINTO TO TEMPLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING AS MANY AREAS
RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAINFALL YESTERDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED THREE TO FOUR INCH
AMOUNTS.

FORECASTED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
TEXAS...WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC STORMS BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE
SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING FOR
FLOODING REPORTS.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVER WEATHER REPORTS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
520 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     TSTM WND GST     RUNAWAY BAY             33.17N  97.87W
03/30/2007  E65 MPH          WISE               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
524 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     FLASH FLOOD      (E)7 SW OGLESBY         31.42N  97.51W
03/30/2007                   CORYELL            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY. 36 CLOSED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
532 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HEWITT                  31.45N  97.19W
03/30/2007                   MCLENNAN           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROADS UNDER WATER IN HEWITT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
558 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MONTAGUE                33.66N  97.72W
03/30/2007                   MONTAGUE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS UNDER WATER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
559 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WACO                    31.57N  97.18W
03/30/2007                   MCLENNAN           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PORTIONS OF I-35 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WACO                    31.57N  97.18W
03/30/2007                   MCLENNAN           TX   PUBLIC

            3 FEET OF WATER OVER THE ROADS IN SOUTHWEST WACO...30TH
            STREET.