Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 301906
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
204 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TXC363-367-302230-
PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
204 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
WESTERN PARKER AND EASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTIES...

AT 158 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED NUMEROUS ROADS 
COVERED WITH WATER AND AT LEAST ONE HIGH WATER RESCUE IN THE WARNED 
AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MINERAL WELLS
STATE PARK...MINERAL WELLS...GRAFORD AND COOL.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. TO 
ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NORTH 
CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3252 9831 3256 9774 3301 9776 3301 9825

$$


JLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
115 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

.AVIATION...
115 PM CDT

AWW FOR DFW THRU 3 PM...WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR LATER
RE-ISSUED FOR LIGHTNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DAL NOT INCLUDED.

INITIAL TSRA TO AFFECT METRO TAF SITES HAS ALREADY RACED NORTH. WILL
WATCH PARKER COUNTY STORM CLOSELY FOR EFFECTS ON FTW/AFW...BUT
EXPECT MCS TO THE WEST TO LARGELY MISS TERMINALS. REDEVELOPMENT IN
PREVIOUSLY UNTAPPED AIR ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF SJT CWA WILL MAKE FOR
THE MAIN EVENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAIN TEMPOS FOR SIGNIFICANT
TSRA 23-03Z. AS UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY DISLODGES...EXPECT FROPA IN THE
06-12Z TIMEFRAME...LIKELY WITH ONE FINAL LINEAR MCS.

18Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS 40-MPH SE WINDS 1-3KFT AGL. GUSTS 20-25KTS AT
SFC WILL PRECLUDE LLWS MENTION AS CRITERIA LIKELY NOT MET...BUT GA
PILOTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF SIGNIFICANT GUSTS WITHIN 1000FT OF SFC. 25

&&

.UPDATE...
1027 AM CDT

WE HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES AND OTHER PRODUCTS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF
THE COMBINATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND THE MORE RECENT TORNADO
WATCH. STORMS LIKELY ARE NOT SURFACE-BASED YET...BUT WILL BE BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS LIKELY THE GREATEST
THREAT...BUT A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO.  #26

&&

.AVIATION...
718 AM CDT

A COMPLEX AVIATION WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF TODAYS
FORECAST WILL BE THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS.  WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS NEAR WACO AND AROUND THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS SO
EXPECT SOME TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z.  CEILINGS WILL
MOST LIKELY LIFT SOME DURING THE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN BUT WILL FALL
BELOW 2000 FT AFTER THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE LIKELY BY 16Z AS ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WORKS
NORTHEASTWARD. OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST LIFT FORECASTED LATE THIS
EVENING WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE STRONG STORMS WILL END BY 09Z BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING AND WEST/NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. 79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
309 AM CDT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TODAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HOLDS THE KEY TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF OUR NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS NOW SWINGING INTO SW ARIZONA. JUST
WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SUBSIDENCE POCKET OVER WEST TX
HAS DISAPPEARED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO SPLIT
NORTHWEST FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME OVER MEXICO. 88-D MOSAIC
SHOWS REGENERATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER SW TX...WHICH SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE WITHIN THIS AREA OF DIFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE /ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SFC LOW/.

WE EXPECT TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE FIRST WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THIS MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LEAD MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES CURRENTLY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE /PER RUC ANALYSIS/.

THE RIO GRANDE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSLATES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE RED RIVER DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE SWINGING
INTO WEST TEXAS BY MIDDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET /90-100KTS/ WILL
ALSO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT. STRONG FORCING ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INITIATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN WILL YET AGAIN BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED THROUGH
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE INCREDIBLY
HIGH...BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. WITH THE ALREADY WELL-SATURATED
GROUND AND SEVERAL WAVES OF DEEP CONVECTION /POSSIBLY TRAINING/
EXPECTED...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS A SERIOUS HAZARD TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...WITH SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE. ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. 0-1KM SHEAR OF 25-30KTS
AND 0-1KM HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 200M2/S2 WITH 0-3KM SHEAR OVER
350M2/S2 CREATE HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. 50-60KTS
AT 500MB WILL ALSO PUNCH INTO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...RESULTING IN 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50...PERHAPS 60KTS. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW LCLS AND SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS
THAN 5 DEGREES F. THIS STRONG SHEAR WILL ESTABLISH A THREAT OF
TORNADOES...SPECIFICALLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA /SOUTHWEST
CWA/. ONE LIMITING FACTOR TO THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. HOWEVER...ANY STORM THAT CAN
MAKE USE OF THE FORECAST 800-1000J/KG OF LOW LEVEL CAPE WILL BE
MORE THAN CAPABLE OF ROTATING...ESPECIALLY ANY OF THOSE DEVIANT TO
THE MEAN FLOW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER /HIGHS IN
THE LOW 70S/ CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY SAG INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  50  72  51  81 / 100  80  30  10   0
WACO, TX              73  52  73  51  80 / 100  80  40  10   0
PARIS, TX             73  56  70  49  80 /  90  80  30  10   0
DENTON, TX            70  49  71  48  80 / 100  80  20  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX          72  51  70  47  79 / 100  80  30  10   0
DALLAS, TX            72  53  72  52  81 / 100  80  30  10   0
TERRELL, TX           75  55  71  51  80 / 100  80  30  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         75  54  71  51  80 /  90  80  50  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            72  52  72  51  83 / 100  80  50  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

26/25
07/06/09/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-311000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
415 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM PALO PINTO TO TEMPLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING AS MANY AREAS
RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAINFALL YESTERDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED THREE TO FOUR INCH
AMOUNTS.

FORECASTED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
TEXAS...WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC STORMS BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE
SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING FOR
FLOODING REPORTS.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVER WEATHER REPORTS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TXZ117-301745-
PARKER TX-
1221 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  PARKER COUNTY

AT 1221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAIL IN EASTLAND COUNTY. ON ITS PRESENT
COURSE...THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL ENTER WESTERN SECTIONS OF PARKER
COUNTY AROUND 1245 PM.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COOL...HUDSON OAKS...
SPRINGTOWN AND WEATHERFORD.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...A SEVERE WEATHER
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARKER COUNTY.  PEOPLE IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER AS THIS DANGEROUS STORM
APPROACHES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3298 9803 3258 9804 3259 9767 3299 9768

07/BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1222 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TXZ101-116-301745-
JACK TX-PALO PINTO TX-
1222 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  JACK COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 1222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST
OF JACKSBORO TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BRYSON...GRAFORD AND
JACKSBORO.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3323 9841 3287 9841 3287 9808 3343 9797

07/BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1236 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     9 S RANGER              32.34N  98.67W
03/30/2007                   EASTLAND           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FOLLOW-UP REPORT...TREES UPROOTED...SHEDS AND
            OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1257 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     TORNADO          9 WNW HUCKABAY          32.39N  98.44W
03/30/2007                   ERATH              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TORNADO NEAR THURBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
116 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             1 SE MINERAL WELLS      32.81N  98.07W
03/30/2007  E1.00 INCH       PALO PINTO         TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED AT MINERAL WELLS AIRPORT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
117 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             3 W COOL                32.80N  98.06W
03/30/2007  E1.00 INCH       PALO PINTO         TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED AT MINERAL WELLS AIRPORT