Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
622 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 90 AND REMOVE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS. #58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SIT OVER
COLORADO AND IS PLACING NORTH TEXAS IN AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ZONE
OF STRONG DYNAMIC LIFTING...WHILE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING
FOR THE IMMEDIATE REPLENISHMENT OF GULF MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION. MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 18Z FWD SOUNDING
DEPICTS RAPIDLY LIFTING/WEAKENING CAP...A PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT
IS JUST SHY OF A MARCH RECORD NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM 500-700 MB. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
BOTH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE WX...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM...AND ALSO A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

STOUT BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL
KEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
STORM/MCS MOTIONS ARE INDICATING ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT
REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. MODELS
DO SUGGEST THAT CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL WANE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT I WOULD NOT TAKE THIS TO THE BANK JUST YET. THESE
SITUATIONS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR STORM COMPLEXES CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING VERTICAL MOTIONS CREATING ANOTHER LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING BAND OF CONVECTION LIKE THE ONE SEEN TODAY. THIS
IS PROGGED TO BE ALONG AN SPS/ABI LINE...BUT OFTEN MODELS DISPLACE
THE MAX QPF TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST IN HEAVY RAIN EVENTS DUE TO
COLD POOL/OUTFLOW PROCESSES WHICH HELP THINGS PROPAGATE SOUTH AND
EAST. BOTTOM LINE...WITH THE CONDITIONS STILL PRIME FOR HEAVY RAIN
TOMORROW...WE EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF
HP TORNADIC SPIN UPS...AS LOW LCLS REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT 0-3KM SRH WILL INCREASE TO 400 M2/S2 AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES TO 40-60 KT OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY IS THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH/ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE ENTIRE BAND OF CONVECTION WILL
FINALLY GET AN EASTWARD PUSH AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF INTO THE
PLAINS AND WINDS VEER IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
SQUALL LINE/WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...WITH THINGS TAPERING OFF SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY...BUT AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY FOR AFTERNOON AIRMASS STORMS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE ARE
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL...IN THE WEST/NW CWA IS IN THE WATERSHED AREA OF
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. STAY TUNED TO CONTINUING UPDATES/REFINEMENTS
TO THE EXPECTED THINKING AS THINGS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CHANGE
QUICKLY WITH MESOSCALE FACTORS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN THE WEATHER.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  75  56  72  53 /  90  60  80  40  10
WACO, TX              63  76  59  73  53 /  80  60  80  60  10
PARIS, TX             62  78  60  72  50 /  60  30  80  60  10
DENTON, TX            62  75  54  72  48 /  90  70  80  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          63  76  57  71  48 /  90  50  80  50  10
DALLAS, TX            64  76  58  72  55 /  90  60  80  50  10
TERRELL, TX           64  77  59  71  53 /  70  40  80  60  10
CORSICANA, TX         63  78  61  71  55 /  60  40  80  70  20
TEMPLE, TX            63  76  60  73  55 /  70  60  80  70  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ091>093-100>104-115>119-129>134-141>145-156>159.

&&

75/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
708 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
708 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING ISOLATED
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN AFFECT FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL....DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3
INCHES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY...THEN DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
557 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

TXZ134-292330-
ELLIS TX-
557 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY

AT 557 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENNIS...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALMA...BARDWELL AND ENNIS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3229 9687 3212 9681 3220 9649 3244 9646

07/BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COOLIDGE                31.75N  96.65W
03/29/2007                   LIMESTONE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES UPROOTED AND THROWN ON CARS AND HOUSES NEAR
            COOLIDGE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W NOCONA              33.78N  97.75W
03/29/2007                   MONTAGUE           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            1-2 FEET OF WATER OVER HIGHWAY 82 WEST OF NOCONA AND
            I-75 SOUTH OF NOCONA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             2 S ANGUS               31.97N  96.43W
03/29/2007  E1.00 INCH       NAVARRO            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED IN ANGUS AND RICHLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

TXZ102-117-300030-
WISE TX-PARKER TX-
702 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN PARKER COUNTY
  SOUTHERN WISE COUNTY

AT 702 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRIAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE AURORA...BOYD...BRIAR...RENO
AND SPRINGTOWN.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3291 9775 3284 9759 3316 9736 3323 9758

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
713 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W RETREAT             32.05N  96.51W
03/29/2007                   NAVARRO            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWER OUTAGES AND TREES DOWN WEST OF RICHLAND OVER
            COUNTY ROADS