Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1027 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES AND OTHER PRODUCTS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF
THE COMBINATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND THE MORE RECENT TORNADO
WATCH. STORMS LIKELY ARE NOT SURFACE-BASED YET...BUT WILL BE BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS LIKELY THE GREATEST
THREAT...BUT A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO.  #26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007/

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TODAY...

AVIATION...
A COMPLEX AVIATION WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF TODAYS
FORECAST WILL BE THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS.  WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS NEAR WACO AND AROUND THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS SO
EXPECT SOME TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z.  CEILINGS WILL
MOST LIKELY LIFT SOME DURING THE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN BUT WILL FALL
BELOW 2000 FT AFTER THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE LIKELY BY 16Z AS ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WORKS NORTHEASTWARD.
OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE BEST LIFT FORECASTED LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE
COLD FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
THE STRONG STORMS WILL END BY 09Z BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING AND WEST/NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...
309 AM
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HOLDS THE KEY TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF OUR NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS NOW SWINGING INTO SW ARIZONA. JUST
WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SUBSIDENCE POCKET OVER WEST TX
HAS DISAPPEARED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO SPLIT
NORTHWEST FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME OVER MEXICO. 88-D MOSAIC
SHOWS REGENERATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER SW TX...WHICH SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE WITHIN THIS AREA OF DIFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE /ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SFC LOW/.

WE EXPECT TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE FIRST WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THIS MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LEAD MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES CURRENTLY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE /PER RUC ANALYSIS/.

THE RIO GRANDE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSLATES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE RED RIVER DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE SWINGING
INTO WEST TEXAS BY MIDDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET /90-100KTS/ WILL
ALSO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT. STRONG FORCING ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INITIATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN WILL YET AGAIN BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED THROUGH
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE INCREDIBLY
HIGH...BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. WITH THE ALREADY WELL-SATURATED
GROUND AND SEVERAL WAVES OF DEEP CONVECTION /POSSIBLY TRAINING/
EXPECTED...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS A SERIOUS HAZARD TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...WITH SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE. ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. 0-1KM SHEAR OF 25-30KTS
AND 0-1KM HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 200M2/S2 WITH 0-3KM SHEAR OVER
350M2/S2 CREATE HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. 50-60KTS
AT 500MB WILL ALSO PUNCH INTO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...RESULTING IN 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50...PERHAPS 60KTS. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW LCLS AND SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS
THAN 5 DEGREES F. THIS STRONG SHEAR WILL ESTABLISH A THREAT OF
TORNADOES...SPECIFICALLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA /SOUTHWEST
CWA/. ONE LIMITING FACTOR TO THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. HOWEVER...ANY STORM THAT CAN
MAKE USE OF THE FORECAST 800-1000J/KG OF LOW LEVEL CAPE WILL BE
MORE THAN CAPABLE OF ROTATING...ESPECIALLY ANY OF THOSE DEVIANT TO
THE MEAN FLOW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER /HIGHS IN
THE LOW 70S/ CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY SAG INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  50  72  51  81 / 100  80  30  10   0
WACO, TX              73  52  73  51  80 / 100  80  40  10   0
PARIS, TX             73  56  70  49  80 /  90  80  30  10   0
DENTON, TX            70  49  71  48  80 / 100  80  20  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX          72  51  70  47  79 / 100  80  30  10   0
DALLAS, TX            72  53  72  52  81 / 100  80  30  10   0
TERRELL, TX           75  55  71  51  80 / 100  80  30  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         75  54  71  51  80 /  90  80  50  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            72  52  72  51  83 / 100  80  50  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

25/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-311000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
415 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM PALO PINTO TO TEMPLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING AS MANY AREAS
RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAINFALL YESTERDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED THREE TO FOUR INCH
AMOUNTS.

FORECASTED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
TEXAS...WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC STORMS BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE
SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING FOR
FLOODING REPORTS.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVER WEATHER REPORTS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1041 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TXZ144-301615-
BOSQUE TX-
1041 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  BOSQUE COUNTY

AT 1041 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL 11 MILES WEST OF
CLIFTON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CLIFTON...IREDELL...MERIDIAN
AND MERIDIAN STATE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FRINDAY EVENING FOR ALL
OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

LAT...LON 3171 9779 3160 9759 3183 9748 3212 9760
      3210 9786 3190 9792

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1057 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TXZ100-101-301630-
JACK TX-YOUNG TX-
1057 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN JACK COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN YOUNG COUNTY

AT 1057 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GRAHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BRYSON.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME PEA SIZE HAIL.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3296 9860 3285 9839 3310 9820 3323 9849

82/JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     TORNADO          2 S CARBON              32.24N  98.83W
03/30/2007                   EASTLAND           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF TORNADO REPORTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1153 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 AM     HAIL             RANGER                  32.47N  98.67W
03/30/2007  E1.00 INCH       EASTLAND           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER HAIL IN RANGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1202 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TXZ144-156>160-301800-
BOSQUE TX-MCLENNAN TX-CORYELL TX-FALLS TX-LAMPASAS TX-BELL TX-
1202 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  BELL COUNTY
  BOSQUE COUNTY
  CORYELL COUNTY
  FALLS COUNTY
  LAMPASAS COUNTY
  MCLENNAN COUNTY

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 100 PM.

SECURE LOOSE...LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS WHICH MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE
WIND. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SO STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3080 9733 3151 9679 3183 9761 3125 9858

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TXZ117-301745-
PARKER TX-
1221 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  PARKER COUNTY

AT 1221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAIL IN EASTLAND COUNTY. ON ITS PRESENT
COURSE...THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL ENTER WESTERN SECTIONS OF PARKER
COUNTY AROUND 1245 PM.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COOL...HUDSON OAKS...
SPRINGTOWN AND WEATHERFORD.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...A SEVERE WEATHER
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARKER COUNTY.  PEOPLE IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER AS THIS DANGEROUS STORM
APPROACHES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3298 9803 3258 9804 3259 9767 3299 9768

07/BB