Flash Flood Warning 261, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN LAMPASAS AND FORT WORTH AT 1130Z...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES THE METROPLEX...BUT WILL KEEP A TEMPO TSRA
IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z...EXCEPT 14-17Z AT
KDAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD....BUT PAST 16-17Z...HAVE JUST PLACED
VCTS/VCSH FOR NOW. #58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007/

DISCUSSION...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RENEWED FLASH FLOODING MOST LIKELY WILL OCCUR
TODAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL FORCES OPERATING ON THE THE LONG-LIVED MID-
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SUCH THAT WE HAVE THE CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FIRST...STRENGTHENING AND
BUILDING SUMMER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WILL IMPINGE ON THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS STORM SYSTEM FROM BOTH THE EAST AND THE
WEST...CAUSING THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO SHEAR OUT (BECOME LESS
CIRCULAR)...AND LOSE STRENGTH IN THE PROCESS.

MOREOVER...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ALONG THE WEAKENING AND SLOWING FRONT
..RATHER THAN CONTINUING TO SPIN ABOUT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHILE PRODUCING SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING. THE MOISTURE WILL SPLAY OUT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS WELL.

ALL OF THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT DURING THE NEXT 4-5
DAYS...THE INCREDIBLY LIFE SPAN OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COME
TO AN END. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...BUT IN A LESS
CONCENTRATED FASHION...AS OPPOSED TO THE FLASH FLOOD EVENTS NEAR
THE CORE OF THE CIRCULATION DURING PREVIOUS DAYS AND NIGHTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLOWLY..AS SUNSHINE BECOMES MORE PROMINENT
NEXT WEEK. #26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  83  71  85  70  88 /  60  50  40  40  40
WACO, TX              84  70  85  69  90 /  60  50  30  40  30
PARIS, TX             86  71  86  70  88 /  40  40  40  40  40
DENTON, TX            82  70  85  66  87 /  60  50  40  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          84  70  85  65  89 /  60  50  40  40  40
DALLAS, TX            84  72  85  71  87 /  60  50  40  40  40
TERRELL, TX           85  71  85  70  87 /  40  40  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         86  71  86  70  89 /  40  30  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            82  71  85  70  87 /  60  40  30  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

58/21/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
517 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
517 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF
TORNADO. FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
601 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CAMERON                 30.86N  96.98W
06/28/2007                   MILAM              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS NEAR CAMERON FLOODED AND SOME
            CLOSED. INCLUDING FM 1915 NORTH AND SOUTH AT BIG ELM
            CREEK...FM 2269...FM 486...FM 437...FM 1600...AND FM 485

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W ADAMSVILLE          31.30N  98.25W
06/28/2007                   LAMPASAS           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROADWAY ON FM 581 BETWEEN ADAMSVILLE AND
            LOMETA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
822 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     FLASH FLOOD      11 W GATESVILLE         31.44N  97.92W
06/28/2007                   CORYELL            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 84 CLOSED AT COWHOUSE CREEK...WATER THREATENING
            HWY 116 AT PIDCOKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
836 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E IREDELL             31.99N  97.84W
06/28/2007                   BOSQUE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY. 6 FLOODED NEAR IREDELL...DOWN TO ONE LANE AND MAY
            HAVE TO BE CLOSED COMPLETELY.