Flash Flood Warning 253, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 280215
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
914 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

TXC379-280315-
RAINS TX-
914 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR
RAINS COUNTY...

AT 914 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.  THIS 
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EMORY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL AFFECY...  
  EMORY THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3298 9593 3285 9593 3277 9587 3272 9562
      3298 9567

$$

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 280311
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1011 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

TXC379-280321-
RAINS TX-
1011 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1015 PM CDT FOR RAINS
COUNTY...

ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...REMAIN CAUTIOUS AND VIGILANT.

LAT...LON 3298 9593 3285 9593 3277 9587 3272 9562
      3298 9567

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

.AVIATION...
615 PM CDT

UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD...WITH DIURNAL
VARIATION IN PRECIP PATTERNS PROVIDING SOME PRECISION IN TIMING.
CURRENT ROUND OF CONVECTION IN METROPLEX WILL COME TO AN END
SHORTLY...WITH CENTRAL TEXAS STORMS AFFECTING METRO TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING. AGREE WITH ZFW THAT SHEAR AXIS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY
BE THE FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST. WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS DAYTIME CONVECTION...THIS
TROPICAL FEATURE IS LIKELY TO BE RECHARGED FOR CORE RAINS LATE
TONIGHT. MAY CARRY VCTS/VCSH OR TEMPO -RA...BUT EXPECT MAIN EVENT
FOR TAF SITES TO BE THROUGH MID EVENING. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. 25

&&

.CLIMATE...
615 PM CDT

JUNE 2007 RANKS AMONG WETTEST ON RECORD

DALLAS/FORT WORTH

   1   11.58   1928
   2   10.49   2004
   3   10.21*  2007
   4    8.75   1989
   5    7.85   1981

WACO

   1   12.06   1961
   2   10.55   1927
   3   10.21   1938
   4    9.89   1919
   5    8.13*  2007

  * THROUGH JUNE 27 AT 615 PM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY NICE VIS SAT LOOP SHOWING UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA NEAR HOBART. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT WITH PART OF IT MERGING INTO EASTERN CANADA TROUGH AND
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OVER WRN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. THIS WEAKEST ALOFT
SEPARATES TWO HIGH PRESSURE CELLS...ONE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE SHEAR ZONES OVER THE REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE ZONE TILTS WEST TO EAST AND SLIDES DOWN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY.

AGAIN WE EXPECT SOME ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...HOPEFULLY NOT A SEVERE AS MARBLE FALLS OR HOOD COUNTY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONVECTION WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN PWATS COMES DOWN TO 1.5
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SHEAR ZONE
LOSSES SOME OF ITS ENERGY...BUT SOME HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWER POPS EVEN MORE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE ZONES SLIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA.

BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...THEN WARMER AFTERWARD. LOWS RETURNING TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  84  70  86  72 /  70  60  40  40  40
WACO, TX              72  86  70  87  72 /  70  60  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             71  84  71  87  70 /  50  50  40  40  40
DENTON, TX            70  83  69  85  70 /  70  60  40  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          69  83  69  85  70 /  70  60  40  40  40
DALLAS, TX            72  84  71  87  72 /  70  60  40  40  40
TERRELL, TX           69  84  71  87  71 /  60  50  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         74  86  72  88  72 /  60  40  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  86  71  85  72 /  70  60  40  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

26/25/82
06/09/79/92/91

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-281100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
345 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

WEAK LIFT AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS OR
EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO.  ALTHOUGH...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS... LOCATIONS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
815 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S FARMERSVILLE        33.13N  96.36W
06/27/2007                   COLLIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            COUNTY ROAD 558 AT 605 TEE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
819 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SULPHUR SPRINGS         33.14N  95.61W
06/27/2007                   HOPKINS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING IN SULPHUR SPRINGS...ROADS STILL
            PASSABLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
827 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SW PECAN GAP          33.40N  95.90W
06/27/2007                   HUNT               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CREEKS FLOODED IN WESTERN PART OF COUNTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
829 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FAIRVIEW                33.14N  96.62W
06/27/2007                   COLLIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            HIGHWAY 5 FLOODED AT RAILROAD BRIDGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
830 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW SULPHUR SPRINGS    33.08N  95.68W
06/27/2007                   HOPKINS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN NEAR SHIRLEY COMMUNITY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
843 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

TXZ106-107-280215-
DELTA TX-HOPKINS TX-
843 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  DELTA COUNTY
  NORTHERN HOPKINS COUNTY

AT 843 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF COMMERCE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COOPER...CUMBY...COOPER LAKE
PARK DOCTORS CREEK AND COOPER LAKE PARK SOUTH SULPHUR.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3309 9584 3346 9585 3348 9579 3348 9560
      3344 9553 3343 9543 3338 9531 3337 9531
      3336 9543 3322 9536 3309 9584

DUNN