Flash Flood Warning 250, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

.AVIATION...
615 PM CDT

UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD...WITH DIURNAL
VARIATION IN PRECIP PATTERNS PROVIDING SOME PRECISION IN TIMING.
CURRENT ROUND OF CONVECTION IN METROPLEX WILL COME TO AN END
SHORTLY...WITH CENTRAL TEXAS STORMS AFFECTING METRO TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING. AGREE WITH ZFW THAT SHEAR AXIS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY
BE THE FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST. WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS DAYTIME CONVECTION...THIS
TROPICAL FEATURE IS LIKELY TO BE RECHARGED FOR CORE RAINS LATE
TONIGHT. MAY CARRY VCTS/VCSH OR TEMPO -RA...BUT EXPECT MAIN EVENT
FOR TAF SITES TO BE THROUGH MID EVENING. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. 25

&&

.CLIMATE...
615 PM CDT

JUNE 2007 RANKS AMONG WETTEST ON RECORD

DALLAS/FORT WORTH

   1   11.58   1928
   2   10.49   2004
   3   10.21*  2007
   4    8.75   1989
   5    7.85   1981

WACO

   1   12.06   1961
   2   10.55   1927
   3   10.21   1938
   4    9.89   1919
   5    8.13*  2007

  * THROUGH JUNE 27 AT 615 PM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY NICE VIS SAT LOOP SHOWING UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA NEAR HOBART. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT WITH PART OF IT MERGING INTO EASTERN CANADA TROUGH AND
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OVER WRN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. THIS WEAKEST ALOFT
SEPARATES TWO HIGH PRESSURE CELLS...ONE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE SHEAR ZONES OVER THE REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE ZONE TILTS WEST TO EAST AND SLIDES DOWN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY.

AGAIN WE EXPECT SOME ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...HOPEFULLY NOT A SEVERE AS MARBLE FALLS OR HOOD COUNTY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONVECTION WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN PWATS COMES DOWN TO 1.5
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SHEAR ZONE
LOSSES SOME OF ITS ENERGY...BUT SOME HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWER POPS EVEN MORE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE ZONES SLIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA.

BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...THEN WARMER AFTERWARD. LOWS RETURNING TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  84  70  86  72 /  70  60  40  40  40
WACO, TX              72  86  70  87  72 /  70  60  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             71  84  71  87  70 /  50  50  40  40  40
DENTON, TX            70  83  69  85  70 /  70  60  40  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          69  83  69  85  70 /  70  60  40  40  40
DALLAS, TX            72  84  71  87  72 /  70  60  40  40  40
TERRELL, TX           69  84  71  87  71 /  60  50  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         74  86  72  88  72 /  60  40  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  86  71  85  72 /  70  60  40  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

26/25/82
06/09/79/92/91

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-281100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
345 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

WEAK LIFT AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS OR
EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO.  ALTHOUGH...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS... LOCATIONS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TOLAR                   32.39N  97.92W
06/27/2007                   HOOD               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD CLOSED IN TOLAR...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

TXZ116-117-280100-
PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
604 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY
  PARKER COUNTY

AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN PALO
PINTO AND PARKER COUNTIES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1/2 INCH WILL
AGGRAVATE THE ALREADY SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 3270 9838 3252 9840 3255 9753 3301 9756
      3300 9804

DUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     FLASH FLOOD      STEPHENVILLE            32.22N  98.22W
06/27/2007                   ERATH              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND
            COUNTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
618 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MARLIN                  31.31N  96.89W
06/27/2007                   FALLS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING IN MARLIN...ROADS STILL PASSABLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

TXZ161-280015-
LIMESTONE TX-
646 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY

AT 646 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF GROESBECK...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GROESBECK...MEXIA AND FORT
PARKER STATE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3152 9669 3138 9654 3160 9633 3173 9655

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
652 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

TXZ093-094-104-280015-
GRAYSON TX-FANNIN TX-COLLIN TX-
652 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN COLLIN COUNTY
  WESTERN FANNIN COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN GRAYSON COUNTY

AT 652 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM ANNA TO WOLFE CITY...MOVING NORTH
AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ANNA...BAILEY...BELLS...
BONHAM...DODD CITY...ECTOR...LEONARD...SAVOY...TOM BEAN...WHITEWRIGHT
AND BONHAM STATE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3330 9655 3369 9659 3371 9637 3369 9633
      3371 9630 3373 9605 3373 9605 3339 9608
      3336 9628 3327 9629

92