Flash Flood Warning 258, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RENEWED FLASH FLOODING MOST LIKELY WILL OCCUR
TODAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL FORCES OPERATING ON THE THE LONG-LIVED MID-
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SUCH THAT WE HAVE THE CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FIRST...STRENGTHENING AND
BUILDING SUMMER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WILL IMPINGE ON THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS STORM SYSTEM FROM BOTH THE EAST AND THE
WEST...CAUSING THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO SHEAR OUT (BECOME LESS
CIRCULAR)...AND LOSE STRENGTH IN THE PROCESS.

MOREOVER...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ALONG THE WEAKENING AND SLOWING FRONT
...RATHER THAN CONTINUING TO SPIN ABOUT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHILE PRODUCING SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING. THE MOISTURE WILL SPLAY OUT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS WELL.

ALL OF THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT DURING THE NEXT 4-5
DAYS...THE INCREDIBLY LIFE SPAN OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COME
TO AN END. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...BUT IN A LESS
CONCENTRATED FASHION...AS OPPOSED TO THE FLASH FLOOD EVENTS NEAR
THE CORE OF THE CIRCULATION DURING PREVIOUS DAYS AND NIGHTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLOWLY..AS SUNSHINE BECOMES MORE PROMINENT
NEXT WEEK. #26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  71  85  70  88 /  60  50  40  40  40
WACO, TX              84  70  85  69  90 /  60  50  30  40  30
PARIS, TX             86  71  86  70  88 /  40  40  40  40  40
DENTON, TX            84  70  85  66  87 /  60  50  40  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          84  70  85  65  89 /  60  50  40  40  40
DALLAS, TX            85  72  85  71  87 /  60  50  40  40  40
TERRELL, TX           85  71  85  70  89 /  40  40  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         86  71  86  70  89 /  40  30  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            82  71  85  70  87 /  60  40  30  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

25/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
517 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
517 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF
TORNADO. FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

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