Small Craft Advisory 983, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 230745 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1045 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

UPDATED ZONE 170.

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 986 MB LOW NEAR KING SALMON WILL MOVE TO NEAR UNALAKLEET AND WEAKEN
TO 994 MB FRI MORNING. A 979 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE
TO 50 NM OF SHEMYA AND STRENGTHEN TO 957 MB THU NIGHT THEN WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. A 993 MB LOW FORMING 400 NM SOUTH OF ADAK FRI AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 984 MB 70 NM SOUTHWEST OF COLD BAY FRI NIGHT THEN
MOVE TO 130 NM WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM SAT AFTERNOON. A 988 MB LOW
FORMING 750 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL STRENGTHEN TO 969 MB 320 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-231500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.  
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-231500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-231500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
1045 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-231500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING THEN
BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-231500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-231500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 231241 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

CORRECT ZONE 155

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-240300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 954 MB LOW 80 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU THIS MORNING REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS TO 964 MB. A 
977 MB LOW MOVES NORTH TO 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR LATE FRI
NIGHT...THEN MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO 150 NM EAST OF
SAINT PAUL LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-240300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-240300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-240300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-240300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 
40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-240300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-240300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
418 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AT UPPER
LEVELS THIS MORNING...THERE IS A STRONG JET STREAM JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE JET STREAM THEN NOSEDIVES SOUTH TO ABOUT
35N...THEN COMES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AT THE
SURFACE IS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWEST ALONG THE JET
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY WITH LOTS OF WARM...MOIST AIR
COMING STRAIGHT UP FROM THE TROPICS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE JET SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THIS EVENING. A MILD AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN WITH THIS LOW AS WELL. THE
ONLY AREA HANGING ONTO A COLD AIRMASS TODAY IS THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS WHICH REMAINS UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. EVEN THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE WHOLE
REGION WILL HAVE MILD...WET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY SPEAKING...MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE. ALTHOUGH THIS
FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE GFS IN MOST CASES...EVEN IT HAS BEEN
QUITE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...THERE
IS A TON OF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY SET IN FOR KODIAK AND THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
KENAI THIS MORNING...AND THE RAIN WILL ONLY GET HEAVIER AS THE DAY
GOES ON. THE USUAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FOR KODIAK TONIGHT BUT KEEP
GOING FOR COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA WHERE SMALL STREAM FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN. WINDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK VERY STRONG. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTAGE VALLEY...TURNAGAIN
ARM...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE FRONT MOVES ONTO THE NORTH GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN.
THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW ON FRIDAY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT IT IS
EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOW TO MAKE UP FOR THE
MAJOR LOSS OF LOW ELEVATION SNOWPACK RECENTLY. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
KODIAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THE KENAI PENINSULA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES RETURNING.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
A POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND MOVE
TO AROUND DILLINGHAM THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO AROUND ANIAK FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH BETTER THAN THE LAST
LOW...AS THIS LOW HAS BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. EXPECT VERY
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL DETERMINE
WHO GETS THE MOST SNOW...BUT MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK. THROUGH TONIGHT...WE BELIEVE THAT THE BEST SHOT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN THE BETHEL REGION JUST WEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
BRISTOL BAY MAY GET SOME SNOW...GENERALLY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION THROUGH TONIGHT. MCGRATH WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR EAST TO SEE MUCH SNOW. COLDER AIR WORKS IN
FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO NORTON SOUND...AND PRECIP CHANGES
TO GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A VERY BRIEF
BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A FRONT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WITH MORE MILD AIR AND
A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
AN INTENSIFYING LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PARK
ITSELF THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND ATTU AS IT SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FALLING MOSTLY AS RAIN...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR TRIPLE POINT
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONT AROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE OVER
THE SOUTHERN BERING/EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED ARE VERY MUDDY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON A CONTINUATION OF A WARM...UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH NUMEROUS STRONG AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 101 AND 125.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONES 120 130 132 172 175 411 412 413
         GALE WARNING ZONES 125 138 140 150 160 170 171 176 179 180
         185 351 352 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING ZONE 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY NOV 07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1117 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 60 SE ANCHORAGE         60.56N 147.94W
11/22/2007  M90 MPH          PKZ125             AK   ASOS

            WIND WAS AVERAGING 28 MPH AT THE TIME OF THE GUST.

&&

DV