Gale Warning 881, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
418 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AT UPPER
LEVELS THIS MORNING...THERE IS A STRONG JET STREAM JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE JET STREAM THEN NOSEDIVES SOUTH TO ABOUT
35N...THEN COMES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AT THE
SURFACE IS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWEST ALONG THE JET
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY WITH LOTS OF WARM...MOIST AIR
COMING STRAIGHT UP FROM THE TROPICS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE JET SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THIS EVENING. A MILD AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN WITH THIS LOW AS WELL. THE
ONLY AREA HANGING ONTO A COLD AIRMASS TODAY IS THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS WHICH REMAINS UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. EVEN THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE WHOLE
REGION WILL HAVE MILD...WET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY SPEAKING...MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE. ALTHOUGH THIS
FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE GFS IN MOST CASES...EVEN IT HAS BEEN
QUITE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...THERE
IS A TON OF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY SET IN FOR KODIAK AND THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
KENAI THIS MORNING...AND THE RAIN WILL ONLY GET HEAVIER AS THE DAY
GOES ON. THE USUAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FOR KODIAK TONIGHT BUT KEEP
GOING FOR COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA WHERE SMALL STREAM FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN. WINDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK VERY STRONG. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTAGE VALLEY...TURNAGAIN
ARM...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE FRONT MOVES ONTO THE NORTH GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN.
THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW ON FRIDAY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT IT IS
EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOW TO MAKE UP FOR THE
MAJOR LOSS OF LOW ELEVATION SNOWPACK RECENTLY. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
KODIAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THE KENAI PENINSULA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES RETURNING.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
A POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND MOVE
TO AROUND DILLINGHAM THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO AROUND ANIAK FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH BETTER THAN THE LAST
LOW...AS THIS LOW HAS BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. EXPECT VERY
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL DETERMINE
WHO GETS THE MOST SNOW...BUT MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK. THROUGH TONIGHT...WE BELIEVE THAT THE BEST SHOT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN THE BETHEL REGION JUST WEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
BRISTOL BAY MAY GET SOME SNOW...GENERALLY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION THROUGH TONIGHT. MCGRATH WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR EAST TO SEE MUCH SNOW. COLDER AIR WORKS IN
FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO NORTON SOUND...AND PRECIP CHANGES
TO GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A VERY BRIEF
BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A FRONT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WITH MORE MILD AIR AND
A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
AN INTENSIFYING LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PARK
ITSELF THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND ATTU AS IT SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FALLING MOSTLY AS RAIN...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR TRIPLE POINT
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONT AROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE OVER
THE SOUTHERN BERING/EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED ARE VERY MUDDY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON A CONTINUATION OF A WARM...UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH NUMEROUS STRONG AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 101 AND 125.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONES 120 130 132 172 175 411 412 413
         GALE WARNING ZONES 125 138 140 150 160 170 171 176 179 180
         185 351 352 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING ZONE 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY NOV 07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1117 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 60 SE ANCHORAGE         60.56N 147.94W
11/22/2007  M90 MPH          PKZ125             AK   ASOS

            WIND WAS AVERAGING 28 MPH AT THE TIME OF THE GUST.

&&

DV