Small Craft Advisory 982, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 221753 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
900 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

UPDATED ZONE 121 AND 125

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
TO NEAR DILLINGHAM AT 983 MB THIS AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ONSHORE THE NORTH GULF COAST FRI MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-230300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-230300-
RESURRECTION BAY
900 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
 SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD...SOUTH WIND 35 KTS. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-230300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-230300-
PASSAGE CANAL
900 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-230300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-230300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-230300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-230300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
70 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 
12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
60 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-230300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED NOV 21 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE GOOD RUN-TO-RUN OF THE PREVIOUS 2 GFS MODEL, THE CURRENT
RUN HAS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION AND CONFIDENCE IN IT HAS SLIPPED. ALL
MODELS TAKE THE NEXT LOW SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING
AND MOVES IT INTO NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT DEVELOPS A SECOND LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE
PARENT LOW. OUT WEST...THERE IS VERY POOR CONSENSUS ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE BIG STORM MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA
FRIDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND UPPER LOWS PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE BERING SEA AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS STEERING THE SUBTROPICAL JET NORTHWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GULF AND THE CENTRAL MAINLAND. WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTED
BY THIS PATTERN HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RISEN TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA.

THE SURFACE PATTERN CLOSELY MIRRORS THE UPPER AIR FEATURES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND AN AREA LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE
PREVIOUS STORM, CUTTING JUST SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY
MORNING THEN MOVING INLAND NEAR DILLINGHAM THURSDAY EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE WIND AND RAIN
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH KODIAK ISLAND, THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL PRODUCE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD SCATTER OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDS BUT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL
THURSDAY WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TURN NORTH
AND TO NEAR UNALAKLEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR FROM THIS STORM
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
BRISTOL BAY. MOSTLY RAIN WILL ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST LATE THURSDAY AND THE LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM MOVING INTO THE
BERING SEA FRIDAY, THOUGH IT WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE VERY LARGE AND
STRONG. GALE AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN BERING SEA
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER WESTERN
CANADA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR 101 AND 125.
MARINE...STORM 120, 130, 132, 138, 140
         GALE 125, 129, 141, 150, 155, 160, 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 07