Small Craft Advisory 981, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED NOV 21 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE GOOD RUN-TO-RUN OF THE PREVIOUS 2 GFS MODEL, THE CURRENT
RUN HAS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION AND CONFIDENCE IN IT HAS SLIPPED. ALL
MODELS TAKE THE NEXT LOW SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING
AND MOVES IT INTO NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT DEVELOPS A SECOND LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE
PARENT LOW. OUT WEST...THERE IS VERY POOR CONSENSUS ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE BIG STORM MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA
FRIDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND UPPER LOWS PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE BERING SEA AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS STEERING THE SUBTROPICAL JET NORTHWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GULF AND THE CENTRAL MAINLAND. WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTED
BY THIS PATTERN HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RISEN TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA.

THE SURFACE PATTERN CLOSELY MIRRORS THE UPPER AIR FEATURES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND AN AREA LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE
PREVIOUS STORM, CUTTING JUST SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY
MORNING THEN MOVING INLAND NEAR DILLINGHAM THURSDAY EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE WIND AND RAIN
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH KODIAK ISLAND, THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL PRODUCE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD SCATTER OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDS BUT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL
THURSDAY WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TURN NORTH
AND TO NEAR UNALAKLEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR FROM THIS STORM
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
BRISTOL BAY. MOSTLY RAIN WILL ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST LATE THURSDAY AND THE LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM MOVING INTO THE
BERING SEA FRIDAY, THOUGH IT WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE VERY LARGE AND
STRONG. GALE AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN BERING SEA
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER WESTERN
CANADA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR 101 AND 125.
MARINE...STORM 120, 130, 132, 138, 140
         GALE 125, 129, 141, 150, 155, 160, 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 07