Gale Warning 808, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 231204
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-240300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 954 MB LOW AT 54N 172E THIS MORNING REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS TO 964 MB. A 977 MB LOW MOVES
NORTH TO 53N 164W LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT
MOVES TO 58N 166W LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S TO E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S TO E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 19 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 240005
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-241500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 951 MB LOW NEAR 54N 170E WILL MOVE TO NEAR 52N 170E AND WEAKEN TO
974 MB SUN AFTERNOON. A 984 MB LOW NEAR 74N 173W WILL MOVE TO NEAR
55N 165W AND STRENGTHEN TO 973 MB SAT AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE NEAR
57N 166W SAT NIGHT. A 981 MB LOW 800 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK SAT AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE TO NEAR 55N 154W SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.

.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.   

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
418 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AT UPPER
LEVELS THIS MORNING...THERE IS A STRONG JET STREAM JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE JET STREAM THEN NOSEDIVES SOUTH TO ABOUT
35N...THEN COMES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AT THE
SURFACE IS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWEST ALONG THE JET
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY WITH LOTS OF WARM...MOIST AIR
COMING STRAIGHT UP FROM THE TROPICS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE JET SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THIS EVENING. A MILD AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN WITH THIS LOW AS WELL. THE
ONLY AREA HANGING ONTO A COLD AIRMASS TODAY IS THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS WHICH REMAINS UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. EVEN THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE WHOLE
REGION WILL HAVE MILD...WET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY SPEAKING...MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE. ALTHOUGH THIS
FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE GFS IN MOST CASES...EVEN IT HAS BEEN
QUITE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...THERE
IS A TON OF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY SET IN FOR KODIAK AND THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
KENAI THIS MORNING...AND THE RAIN WILL ONLY GET HEAVIER AS THE DAY
GOES ON. THE USUAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FOR KODIAK TONIGHT BUT KEEP
GOING FOR COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA WHERE SMALL STREAM FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN. WINDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK VERY STRONG. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTAGE VALLEY...TURNAGAIN
ARM...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE FRONT MOVES ONTO THE NORTH GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN.
THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW ON FRIDAY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT IT IS
EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOW TO MAKE UP FOR THE
MAJOR LOSS OF LOW ELEVATION SNOWPACK RECENTLY. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
KODIAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THE KENAI PENINSULA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES RETURNING.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
A POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND MOVE
TO AROUND DILLINGHAM THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO AROUND ANIAK FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH BETTER THAN THE LAST
LOW...AS THIS LOW HAS BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. EXPECT VERY
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL DETERMINE
WHO GETS THE MOST SNOW...BUT MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK. THROUGH TONIGHT...WE BELIEVE THAT THE BEST SHOT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN THE BETHEL REGION JUST WEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
BRISTOL BAY MAY GET SOME SNOW...GENERALLY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION THROUGH TONIGHT. MCGRATH WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR EAST TO SEE MUCH SNOW. COLDER AIR WORKS IN
FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO NORTON SOUND...AND PRECIP CHANGES
TO GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A VERY BRIEF
BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A FRONT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WITH MORE MILD AIR AND
A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
AN INTENSIFYING LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PARK
ITSELF THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND ATTU AS IT SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FALLING MOSTLY AS RAIN...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR TRIPLE POINT
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONT AROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE OVER
THE SOUTHERN BERING/EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED ARE VERY MUDDY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON A CONTINUATION OF A WARM...UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH NUMEROUS STRONG AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 101 AND 125.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONES 120 130 132 172 175 411 412 413
         GALE WARNING ZONES 125 138 140 150 160 170 171 176 179 180
         185 351 352 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING ZONE 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY NOV 07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1117 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 60 SE ANCHORAGE         60.56N 147.94W
11/22/2007  M90 MPH          PKZ125             AK   ASOS

            WIND WAS AVERAGING 28 MPH AT THE TIME OF THE GUST.

&&

DV