Storm Warning 138, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 230726 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1025 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

UPDATED ZONES 125 AND 129.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 986 MB LOW NEAR KING SALMON MOVES INLAND THU NIGHT. A WEATHER 
FRONT OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA MOVES 
ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THU NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-231500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-231500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...
 NORTH OF CAINES HEAD...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
 SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-231500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1025 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF EASTERN BAYS AND
PASSAGES IN THE EVENING. WIND BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-231500-
PASSAGE CANAL
1025 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE EVENING. WIND
DIMINISHING TO E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FEET. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ130-231500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S WIND 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW WIND 35 KT DURING THE EVENING.
WIND DIMINISHING TO SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN 
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-231500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
545 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUT OF TURNAGAIN
ARM...GUSTS TO 70 KT BECOMING GUSTS TO SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
HOMER...SOUTHEAST WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-231500-
KACHEMAK BAY
545 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. WIND BECOMING SE 20 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 5 FT BECOMING 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 231234
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING MOVES ONSHORE THE
NORTH GULF COAST TODAY. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH 
THE WESTERN GULF SAT. A 967 MB LOW THEN MOVES NORTH TO 450 NM SOUTH
OF KODIAK CITY LATE SAT NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-240300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-240300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-240300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-240300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-240300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-240300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-240300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-240300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-240300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM, MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THEY ARE
ALL MOVING THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TO NEAR DILLINGHAM THIS
EVENING THEN TURNING IT NORTHWARD INTO NORTON SOUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THEY HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR THE STORM ENTERING THE BERING SEA
TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BEYOND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS A NEW STORM APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN CANADA. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA EXTENDS DOWN SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE UPPER JET IS STILL POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

THE SURFACE LOW OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH THE WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO BRING IN A WARM MOIST AIR MASS
INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A SIMILAR PATH
TO THE PREVIOUS STORM AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT. SINCE THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING
SLOWER THEN THE ONE THAT WHEN THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. FLOODING
OF MINOR STREAMS ARE WILL OCCUR NEAR SEWARD, WHITTIER AND HOMER.
LOCAL STRONG WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ON THE KENAI PENINSULA,
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THEN SOME CLEARING AS A
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL MOVE THROUGH KING SALMON BY LATE AFTERNOON
THEN TURN NORTH AND MOVE TO NEAR UNALAKLEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL FALL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF BRISTOL BAY AND MOSTLY ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WITH FALL
OVER THE REST OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BERING SEA
COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHWEST
ALASKA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS, RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO JUST WEST OF KUSKOKWIM
BAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
A LARGE STORM SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTH ONTO THE
SOUTHWEST BERING FRIDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL SWING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SATURDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE FOUND AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND HEAD OF THE
FRONT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN PROPAGATE EASTWARD FROM THIS WEEKEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE AKPEN SAT NIGHT AND WILL SEND A TROF THROUGH THE GULF AND
SOUTHERN ALASKA MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR 101 AND 125.
MARINE...GALE...125, 129, 138, 140, 150, 160, 170, 176, 179, 180, 185

         STORM 120, 130, 132, 172, 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 07