Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
245 PM PDT SAT AUG 14 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 700 PM. THE MOISTURE ALOFT WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH FEWER THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS PRODUCED SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
WERE THE FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE APPLE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERE FLOODING WAS REPORTED FROM HESPERIA TO APPLE
VALLEY AND IN VICTORVILLE. OTHER STORMS PRODUCED FLOODING IN BIG
BEAR CITY AND ALONG THE HIGHWAYS 18 AND 38 ON THE SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

THE 18Z NKX SOUNDING HAD A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.56 INCHES. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE SURFACE TO 15000 FEET WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE. MIDLEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC...BUT THE MOISTURE DEPTH WONT BE QUITE AS DEEP SO
THUNDERSTORMS WONT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

LONG RANGE...PROGS WAFFLE BETWEEN WHICH WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES NEXT WEEK...THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER SONORA
MEXICO OR THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY WEST BUT MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY. INCLINED TO GO WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WOULD MEAN
WEAK MONSOON FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON MTN CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND WILL MONITOR MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
MONSOON FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 700 PM
FOR MTNS/DESERTS...SEE LAXFFASGX.

&&

MOEDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
405 AM PDT SAT AUG 14 2004

CAZ048-050-151300-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
245 AM PDT SAT AUG 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE AND THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS
COULD PRODUCE MUD FLOWS IN THE BURN AREAS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL BE A THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

CAZ055-056-058-060>062-151300-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND YUCCA VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
405 AM PDT SAT AUG 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 700 PM.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING FOR THE COACHELLA
VALLEY UNTIL 600 AM.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITH THE CHANCE
OF FLASH FLOODING. MUD SLIDES AND ROCK SLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
BURN AREAS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ALOFT BEGINS TO DECREASE.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...SO NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXWELL